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It was a warm and muggy weekend across the Midwest with storms here and there. Now the pattern is reloading and we'll likely see an active week up ahead with all of the elements of summer.

A cold front moved through Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa and led to a few storms ahead of it and some drier air behind it. That's going to lead to temperatures hanging close to seasonal values Monday afternoon in those parts of the Midwest, but the heat will not be far away...

By Tuesday... everyone is feeling the heat.

We'll have temperatures in the 80s and 90s and dew points that look like this -

Both the GFS and the European models have dew points in the 70s.. The GFS is on the higher end, but given our track record last week I think it's closer to reality. Aided by evapotranspiration from the crops (read more about that here) we could see several days with dew points nearing the 80 degree mark. NASTY!

That ultimately translates to heat indices that may push 100 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

Pretty much every day this week will be hot and humid. One of the hottest days this week looks like Wednesday with widespread triple digit heat indices expected -


There is one complication to the forecast this week and that is the location of showers and thunderstorms. Most of the rain this week is going to occur in the late evening/overnight hours. This is the same pattern we spoke about last week - the "Ring of Fire" - where a big 'ol ridge sets up over the country.

This ridge leads to hot and humid conditions during the afternoons. Then thunderstorm complexes develop later in the evening - because the atmosphere typically becomes capped during the day (due to warm air in the mid levels). These complexes will move clockwise around the dome of heat (hence "ring of fire") and can bring heavy rain, strong winds and hail.

There will likely be multiple nocturnal rounds of storms. Here's what the GFS shows for total precip the next 7 days

Location and amounts will likely chance but we're at full steam ahead for an active, steamy week!


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