COULD WINTER STRUT ITS STUFF THIS YEAR...
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Way back at the end of July I made a post that I thought the worst of summer was behind us. With half of August in the tank, I think it's safe to say that forecast was on the mark. Just look at the August temperature departures. The entire Midwest and much of the eastern 2/3rds of the nation have been well below normal. While it can still get warm the chances for significant heat waves are now dropping by the day.
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Looking ahead, I like the CFSv2 climate models idea of pleasantly cool weather prevailing the remainder of August and into September. Here's the September temperature outlook.
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We are now getting to the point where I can begin to formulate ideas on the upcoming winter. You may recall a couple weeks ago I pointed out the lack of any strong El Nino or La Nina plays in favor of a more typical Midwestern winter than we've seen the past 3 years.
I've also been seeing signs of blocking this winter where it can lead to some healthy cold in the central U.S. Here's the EURO 500mb forecast anomalies for Nov-January. Of note is the massive high pressure in NW Canada and a powerful Aleutian low that's fueling it. There's also western ridging implying a mean trough or storm track that would extend from the southern Plains to the eastern Lakes or Ohio Valley. Add in the tendency for a positive PNA and a negative AO and we have what I perceive to be real threats for cold and snow.
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For several months the CFSv2 climate model has been blow torching the Midwest with well above normal winter temperatures (I showed that in a post). Today the CFSv2 saw the light that I see...at least for now. Here's what it showed for winter temperatures today. That is a much different look.
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Here's the breakdown of monthly temperature departures starting with November going through March. If the CFSv2 is right winter hits early and hard in December. The model shows a break in February before it all ends with a cold March.
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![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_e7a6cdee00b54369bdb5bb5cf659af30~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_37,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_e7a6cdee00b54369bdb5bb5cf659af30~mv2.png)
If the cold comes as some recent models indicate, there will be snow, perhaps above normal in some parts of the Midwest. Yea, I know its early but MANY of you keep asking my opinion. I'm not getting precise, just broad brushing the fact that there are reasons to believe this could be a decent winter. Roll weather...TS