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The risk for severe weather has gone down in parts of my area, but strong to severe storms are still possible in parts of the Midwest. A cold front is stalled out in the area and will lead to storms and heavy rain through Saturday afternoon.

All of the dynamics are in place for the formation of supercell thunderstorms, but there are some missing ingredients. Morning convection and clouds cover is keeping the atmosphere stable over much of Iowa and northern Illinois. There will be some breaks in the action ahead of an area of low pressure that will move in this afternoon.

The strong storms will be dependent on how much clearing occurs and how unstable the atmosphere will get. The higher chances for clearing will be in extreme southeast Iowa, Illinois and Missouri. Projected CAPE (convective available potential energy) values are below for this afternoon.

CAPE isn't overly high, but the low pressure will provide the dynamics for strong storms. Dew points are high (in the 60s), moisture is high and shear is high. Wind shear will be increasing some as the low pressure moves in and it won't take much to get storms to rotate.

Thunderstorms will likely produce heavy rain, gusty winds and hail. Isolated tornadoes aren't out of the questions - especially in the enhanced area. Exactly were the low pressure tracks will play a role in where the strongest storms end up. PWATS (precipitable water) are incredibly high for October and will lead to periods of heavy rain.

Some locations have already reported an inch of rain (as of 2 pm) and more rain is on the way. One to two inch totals will be common with locally higher amounts possible.

Storms will wind down from west to east and cooler air will start to drain in for the end of the weekend. More on that later...


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