OPEN WIDE, IT'S TIME FOR A REALITY CHECK....

As we've been telling you on this site for some time the signs are all in place for a significant pattern change that will bring a much cooler brand of weather to the Midwest starting today. A reality check is in order! Here in Cedar Rapids October has averaged over 7 degrees above normal per day. 13 of the 23 days we've had highs of 70 or above. The October departures look like this with the core of the warmth over the Great Lakes.

With 2 typhoons cutting east of Japan and a favorable MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) in place we're all set for the change. However, there's another key teleconnection that's come into play that should really seal the deal. It't the strongly negative phase of the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation). Look at what the GFS and EURO are forecasting going into November.

The GFS

The EURO

Why is this important? As you can see a strong EPO in November correlates to below normal temperatures across the Midwest.

I find this interesting because this year's trend ties into the analogs of some early starting winters. You can see above 2007, 2008, 1985, 1978, 1996 fall into the blend just to name a few. The cold is also positioned where you would expect it to be in a La Nina winter. Hmmm.

So, the question becomes is this a sign of what the winter could be or just an early release of cold air that comes and goes? One place to look for an answer is the EURO weeklies which came down Monday night. The next 46 days (through December 8th) the EPS centers the cold on the Midwest.

At some point snow is drawn into the picture by Thanksgiving and the EPS 46 day mean shows this for total amounts by December 8th.

The control has this for the same period. Big snows from Colorado into Minnesota.

At least with this run, the EPS clearly thinks the winter is going to get off to fast start. I personally believe there is validity to that line of thought. Roll weather...TS