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An upper level disturbance combined with a cold front will provide the ingredients for severe weather on Sunday in parts of the Midwest.

The main threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes are not out of the question, but much less likely. Temperatures are going to be climbing into the 70s in the warm sector (and about 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year) -

Temperatures north of the cold front will be in the 20s and 30s and in Iowa and Wisconsin temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s as the front moves though. Dew points will climb into the 60s... sticky, especially by November standards!

That will generate some instability, but instability will be tamed by overnight showers and some lingering cloud cover in the morning.

That will be enough to get storms going! Shear will be high, but as you can see above on the sea level pressure, there isn't a very strong low pressure system. So there will not be sufficient rotation for supercell thunderstorms - hence why the tornado risk is low. It isn't out of the question for tornadoes in November, but the odds are low this time of year.

Here's a simulated radar of the storms evolving through the day Sunday -

Hail up to the size of golf balls, winds of 70+ mph and an isolated tornado will be possible. In the evening as the storms form more of a squall line, damaging winds will be the main threat. Then drier and cooler air will take over. By Monday it will be much cooler:

Cooler air will settle in for the remainder of the week with temperatures holding near or below normal.


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