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The mild weather continued through the weekend and the warm air is here to stay for several more days. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for 2/3rds of the country through the first week of December:

The warmest day of this week will be Monday and may threaten records once again. Here are the projected highs on the GFS:

And here's a look at the projected highs from the National Weather Service. The circles indicate temperatures within a degree of the record:

Temperatures are going to remain above normal (not at record levels) through the rest of the week with an upper level ridge largely dominating the pattern.

A change will come eventually... likely in the 7-10 day time frame. Terry has been talking about this for a while and the cold will come! Here's the GFS on December 5th:

Keep in mind the timing may change by a few days, but there are lot of signs hinting to a colder pattern. One of those signs is the AO (Arctic Oscillation) going negative -

Around the 4-6th of December the AO starts to really tank. The EPO also goes down:

The drop comes a little bit later but both of these teleconnections together are a good signal for some cold air. Last, but not least, the MJO is trending toward some colder phases:

We'll be going through phase 4, 5, and 6 which are all (you guessed it) warm phases. Phase 7 is cold for December and yet another sign of colder times to come. It's a little too soon for specifics, but the warm stretch will come to an end. We still have several more days, so enjoy!


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