EXTREMES, WE'RE NOT DONE WITH THEM YET...

A stiff southerly wind, dry air, and a stronger late January sun will combine to produce another big warm-up Friday afternoon. Highs will reach the 50s well into Iowa and northern Illinois. I'm thinking about 55 in Cedar Rapids which is nearly 80 degrees warmer than the 24 below back on January 1st. Take into account the wind chill of 49 below that morning and it will feel 104 degrees warmer. Gotta love the Midwest!

On the topic of extreme weather. it sure looks to me like the pendulum is getting set to swing the other way. It all starts with the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) getting into the colder phases of 7, 8, and 1 towards the the 2nd week of February. Follow the dotted green line.

The evidence for cold increases when you stack the various teleconnections forecast by Thursday's EURO weeklies. Below you can see 4 predicted teleconnections and the temperature departures associated with each in February. One I put a lot of stock in is the EPO. It's shown negative almost the entire month of February.

The EPO:

The WPO:

The AO:

The PNA:

All of these teleconnections look especially cold around February 10th. That potential is certainly showing up in the EURO's EPS control. Here's what it has for temperature anomalies going into February 9th.

You can see the big buckle that should force the cold air into the Midwest.