© 2019 Terry Swails

ALL ABOARD, THE SNOW TRAIN IS RUNNING...

February 6, 2018

Records are made to be broken and finally Des Moines stopped a snow related streak. Finally, after 767 days, more than 3" of snow fell in a single storm. That stops the streak which goes back to December 29, 2015. That's the all-time record for 3" snow droughts in Des Moines. Nice going!

The white gold that fell in my area Monday was the first significant snow in over a month. The totals below were measured from our last storm back in late December. Much of the heavy snow from that event fell in the same area as today's...southeast Iowa.

The recent lengthy snow-less streak created or added to snowfall deficits like the ones below through late January. As you can see virtually every reporting station in the Midwest was posting below normal amounts by 5-10".

At least in some areas, that deficit was significantly reduced Monday as snow swept across much of Iowa and northern Illinois.  Just before 11:00pm Monday night these amounts had been reported by the Iowa Mesonet and NWS offices. Grandview, Iowa in the southeast reported 10.5", the most I have seen in the Midwest from this system.

Here are some snow reports from around my area thanks to the NWS in the Quad Cities.

This may be the turning point for snowier weather going forward this winter. It certainly fits the typical La Nina pattern of heavier snows in the second half of winter. Here's the February through April snowfall anomalies during La Nina winters (which we are in). Above normal snowfall is typical over much of the Midwest and Great Lakes. 

Going forward, the overall pattern remains conducive for active weather and more snow with additional waves and energy aimed at the central Midwest. The combination of the jet stream, baroclinicity and position of the storm track points to the possibility of a significant over-running system. Model guidance is in good agreement with the large scale features through the weekend. However, there is discrepancy between precipitation amounts and placement making it a challenge to time events and determine snowfall amounts at this range. Regardless, we are ripe to get more snow. The 51 member mean ensembles of the GFS and EURO show this for snowfall the next 2 weeks. Remember, this is the average of 51 solutions. Pretty darn good clustering.

 

The GFS Mean.

The EURO Mean shows a similar trend.

The next snow making wave lifts northeast across Missouri Tuesday night and early Wednesday. There will be a short period of nice lift that should generate 1-2" snows over all but my northern-most counties. Southeast Iowa and west-central Illinois could once again see some 3-4" amounts. The GFS has this.

Now, just for fun, the GFS shows this for additional snow through next Tuesday. (Keep in mind this is not a forecast, just guidance) Sweet to look at!

Well, another storm in the books. Can't wait for the next one. Roll weather...TS 

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