LATE TO THE PARTY...

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I would like to thank the 261 people who have stepped up to the plate and made a donation to fund the site through this December. This past year TSwails had over 600,000 sessions, meaning less than 1 donation per session. If you do not find value in the site or don't have the funds, I understand and still welcome you with open arms. For those of you here daily, who gain knowledge, or make financial decisions based on the information, I ask that you make a reasonable contribution. Every little bit helps. After much deliberation, I've decided that due to the daily commitment of time, money, and hard work, this will be the last year for the site if I don't reach my financial goal. I'm 67 percent there. The future depends on you. Thank you for your consideration and support the past 13 years. T. Swails

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THE GFS IS LATE TO THE PARTY...

It's a new day with new cards on the table. Sure enough, the GFS has folded and now has come into agreement with the EURO regarding a colder pattern following the coming spring preview early next week. This was something I had a hunch would happen with the WPO flipping from strongly positive to strongly negative. You can see the WPO below, crossing the line on February 19th.

Prior to it happening, you can also see the ridge going up with high pressure over the Pacific into Alaska. A downstream trough is digging into the west (the result of a negative PNA, Pacific North American Oscillation). It's forcing unseasonably mild air into the Midwest.

Look at the temperature departures on the GFS, some pushing 40 degrees above normal. That's just ahead of the colder air that enters the pattern by the 20th.

Here's a closer inspection of some of the specific departures on the afternoon of the 18th.

Actual temperatures on the GFS look like this. That seems too good to be true and maybe it is.

Before you get too excited, especially those of you in the north, notice what the EURO does. It shuts the warmest air down about I-80. Most likely this is due to the cold waters of the Great Lakes and the snow cover that surrounds them. The warmth has a very tough time bucking the cold, dense air at the surface and pretty much stalls over southern Iowa and WC Illinois. I've seen this numerous times in situations such as this. It's a real thing, and models can have a tough time gauging the effect. Hopefully it doesn't force the boundary any further south in future runs.

As it stands now, the EURO says 65 to 72 over all of my area on the 18th. Below it has 71 in the Quad Cities.

The EURO even shows 69 to the Quad Cities before abruptly cutting it off north of I-80 with just 45 in Dubuque.

Both the EURO and GFS then succumb to the negative WPO and eliminate the warmth and drive highs back into the 20s again on February 25th or 26th. As always, the GFS was late to the party on this idea. I would also watch for a potential storm system around the 19th as the pattern breaks. The EURO shows it.

Alright then, we have some clarity that did not exist 24 hours ago. Look for a steady warm-up into the weekend that builds into a spring fling early next week. Rest assured it's fake spring, and we may have some winter to contend with soon after it ends. Also, keep an eye on the northward extent of those 60 and 70 degree temperatures. I could see models ending up overzealous on the numbers. It would not be a surprise to see them go down some in the coming days, especially in my northern counties. Roll weather...TS ON A SERIOUS NOTE, IF I DON'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 67% to my goal.

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