A SHOVEL FULL OF WINTER....
Make no mistake about it, a couple of hefty shots of cold air are on their way to the Midwest the next week. The first arrives Friday-Saturday followed by an even colder blast Monday-Tuesday. The 10 day temperature departure on the CFSv2 shows the trend.
The GEFS ensemble follows suit.
The EURO EPS ensemble is in agreement as well.
Just look at this massive high pressure that will deliver the cold. The strength at 1047 mb (nearly 31.00") is something you would expect to in the dead of winter.
Look how the high is driving the 500mb jet deeply into the heart of the nation.
Thank goodness this isn't January as the air mass has true Arctic origins. The GFS shows a high temperature next Tuesday of 22 in Cedar Rapids.
That's 30 degrees below normal.
Don't forget the wind chills. Sub-zero to single-digit widespread Tuesday morning.
Snow is also going to be a by-product of the cold air. It still appears that amounts will generally be light with totals 1/2 to 2" in most areas, perhaps a few isolated spots with up to 3". As it stands now there will be 2 chances for snow accumulations. The first comes Thursday night in the south. A secondary disturbance Friday afternoon could bring more snow but a little further north. At this point the GFS is about the only model showing much from this disturbance so low confidence in this time frame.
Here are snowfall forecasts I have in so far Tuesday night. You'll notice there's notable variance in amounts and placement. The GFS is the most aggressive with amounts in my central counties on into Illinois. First the NAM.
The 3k NAM. It only goes out 60 hours.
These are the odds of at least and inch of snow from the Weather Prediction Center.
Wednesday I'm hoping models come into better agreement on amounts, timing, and placement of the 2 snow systems. Again, there's no doubt about the fact the next 7 days will be heavy on winter...about 7 weeks ahead of schedule. Roll weather...TS