The Madden Julien Oscillation (MJO) is about to head into the golden stages of wintry weather...7, 8, and 1. This will be the stimulus for a cold and stormy end to November and start to December. It all kicks off with what looks to be a significant winter storm later this weekend.
We've still got 5 days until the event so many issues remain to be resolved but all the major models are sniffing the trend. Unfortunately for my area, they still have differences regarding the storms development. Here's where things stand as of Tuesday night.
Starting with the GFS, you can see it currently produces a powerful 988 mb surface low near Quincy Sunday at noon. Strong winds, rain and snow are widespread.
Thermal profiles are warm enough in the s/east half of my area that during much of the event rain is the predominate form of precipitation until a change to snow late. The GEFS ensemble, (21 members) show this for mean snowfall.
The 0z operational run of the GFS has this. Due to a higher model resolution the amounts shown are higher. Otherwise, it's geographical area is similar to the ensembles eliminating the SE part of my area a heavy snowfall. Areas just to the northwest get hammered.
Switching to the EURO, it's thermal profiles are colder and its surface reflection just a touch weaker. It's also slightly faster. More importantly, the snow is further south and impacts much of my area. I think the EURO's handling the effects of dynamic cooling better and at this point I side more with its southerly solution. Here's what it shows for surface features at noon Sunday.
The 0z operational run has this. It's much further south with the snow band.
A closer view of the EURO amounts in my local area.
What I want to stress is that none of these snowfall forecasts are set in stone. Most likely the final track will shift some in the next 48 hours altering amounts in any one location. What is important is the fact we have a solid trend for what looks to be a potent winter storm. Along with the heavy snow will come strong winds that could limit visibility. If you are planning on traveling in the central Midwest Sunday/Sunday night I would keep up with forecasts.
Following the storm, it's going to get cold next week, especially where there's snow cover. These are the 5 day temperature departures off the EURO EPS starting November 26th and ending December 1st. This final round of cold will see to it that November 2018 is one of the coldest on record.. For some it could be one of the snowiest.
For now that's where we stand with the weekend storm. No major weather issues through Thanksgiving. Roll weather...TS