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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Quad Cities

Potent Winter Storm Expected Late Tonight through Sunday...

Hazardous winter weather conditions are expected to impact the area beginning late tonight and continuing through Sunday evening. Precipitation is likely to begin as rain, or a mix of rain and snow, then will change over to all snow from north to south on Sunday. 4 to 8 inches of snow are likely in the heaviest axis, locally higher, but expect more adjustments to the forecast later today and tonight. Strong north winds will develop on Sunday. Expect very hazardous travel conditions Sunday, with near blizzard conditions at times in heavy snow and blowing snow. The strong winds, combined with heavy, wet snow will also result in downed tree branches and power lines..

During the overnight winter storm warnings for Sunday were issued for the following counties. Winter weather advisories or winter storm watches are in effect for surrounding counties

The National Weather Service is projecting snow totals in the warning area to be in the 4-8" range with locally higher amounts.

The U.S. based GFS model generates amounts that look like this.The heaviest snow is shown further northwest than what the NWS model indicates. This indicates the potential still exists for changes in forecast accumulations with any shift north or south of the storm track Saturday.

Projected high end amounts.

Projected low end amounts.

At this time the NWS calculates these odds of at least 1" of snow.

With the storm still 24 hours away some changes are still possible in track, intensity, and amounts.Snow is not likely to become a factor until Sunday morning across my local area. Once snow begins conditions will deteriorate quickly. At times snowfall rates could reach 1-2" per hour. Thundersnow is also possible as strong forcing and lapse rates generate convective banding. Strong winds up to 35 mph (perhaps 40) will further restrict visibility in blowing snow. Be advised traveling will be difficult in those areas impacted by the snow. Sbow will diminish Sunday evening. More to come later today. Roll weather...TS

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