TIME TO CHILL OUT...

5 hours ago

3 min read

A compact clipper streaked across the region Wednesday morning causing quite a ruckus in my central counties. While the track was on the mark along with the axis of rain, models did a horrible job of anticipating the systems overall strength. Strong vertical velocities developed just north of the circulation providing the lift for vigorous thunderstorms with a narrow swath or 1-2 inch rains from NW of Cedar Rapids southeast to the north side ot the Quad City metro and points E/SE.

Along with the downpours came some reports of 55 to 60 mph wind, lots of lightning, and hail up to 1" in diameter along that line as you can see in the NWS storm reports.

Here you can see the swift movement of the clipper from Tuesday night to the east of the Quad Cities Wednesday morning. Little if any rain fell south of the circulation center.

The fact the system developed an eye (visible in the radar data near Mendota) is a testament to the strength of disturbance. Small doesn't always mean wimpy. This little guy packed quite the punch for those in its 60 mile swath.

Now that the clipper has sailed off to the east, a healthy trough sets up that chills us off through the weekend. Highs will remain in the 40s now through Sunday. Friday looks to be the coldest with highs of only 40 or slightly above. Wind chills Friday morning will be rather frisky in the upper teens north to the low 20s south. Lows Friday through Monday morning will hit the mid to upper 20s areawide. I should also mention there is likely to be quite a bit of low clouds/stratus both Thursday and Friday before skies fully clear out after that.

As far as precipitation goes, I see very little if any through Friday of next week. This is what the EURO is showing for precipitation over the next 10 days. Pretty darn lean (and boring).

A big positive next week aside from the warmth, is the fact temperatures will moderate to above levels one again. Highs should crack the 50s by next Tuesday and could approach 60 late week, especially from I-80 south. El Nino does its thing one more time.

Two week temperature trends on the GFS

2 weeks temperature trends on the EURO

HAMMER TIME...

If you haven't noticed on the above meteograms, both the GFS and EURO end the two week period with significantly colder temperatures somewhere around November 23-26th. That is within the time frame I have targeted the last 2 weeks for what seems to be the beginning of a colder, stormier period for much of the nation. This is the projected 500mb pattern November 24th on the GFS.

Today, the GFS has this for temperature departures November 27th. Most of the country east of the Rockies is below normal. That's a significant change from where we have consistently been since October 1st.

The ensemble mean of the EURO weeklies shows this for 32 day snowfall November 24th through December 26th. Again, it's not a given at this distance but the consistency in placement and amounts the past 10 days has been amazing. Fingers crossed for me!

THE STORK PAYS ME A VISIT...

About 3 weeks ago my beloved cat of 18 years, Emma Rose suddenly passed away. I'm struggling daily to fill the void her spirit and companionship left. Today, in her memory the stork offered us a pair of kittens from a rescue shelter in Prairie Du Chien, Wisconsin. We made the trip and now my fur family includes Nimbus (my dog), Frankie (my boy cat), and the new arrivals, Beau Du Chien Swails, and Maggie May Swails, They are in the house at their forever home! Here's a picture of each.

BEAU DU CHIEN SWAILS- 5 months