SPLASH AND DASH STORMS...
Through Monday evening Cedar Rapids had gone nearly 4 days with no measurable rain. A big deal considering the longest we went the entire month of May was 2 days! We did that 3 times. You can see it highlighted below.
The next 24 hours scattered showers and storms are back in the forecast. Amounts for many are likely to be manageable (generally 1/2 to 1.00""). However, there may be some spots that pick up higher amounts (more than 1") where stronger storms are involved. You can see that in the rain forecast off the 3k NAM. This includes rain that falls Monday night through Tuesday night.
If there's going to be any strong storms in our future, late Tuesday afternoon or evening would be the time frame to watch. The 3k NAM shows a line of storms passing south through northern Iowa Tuesday evening. The GFS though depicts nothing at all. Confidence is low on timing and placement and it may come down to subtle boundaries and mesocale details that won't be defined until later Tuesday. Something to watch.
The Storm Prediction Center does have a slight risk area in effect for a large part of the Midwest including my area.
After Tuesday night, high pressure is forecast to build into the upper Midwest from Canada. The strength of the high is going to be critical as it determines how far north the next storm and its rain shield can penetrate as it comes out of the southwest.The upper air low at 500mb is shown below centered over Arizona.
The latest trends have been to develop high pressure strong enough to keep rain out of the forecast in my local area Wednesday through Saturday. You can see it's a close call with rain falling from SW Iowa into Missouri during much of that period.
Temperatures the rest of the week look mild with highs upper 70s to mid 80s,,,the warmest readings coming Tuesday and Wednesday. That's where things stand right now. Nice to be back home after a whirlwind storm chase through the Plains that covered 2,500 miles in 5 days. We got what we went for and that EF4 kansas tornado was a sight to see. Thanks to Dahl Ford for once again sponsoring the 2019 event, our best year ever. The Dahl difference is real and I hope you will give them a try when it comes time for purchasing your next vehicle. They've always been there for me and have helped make this site a reality since day one. Roll weather...TS