THIS ONE'S ON ME...
Finally, some first rate weather showed up around the upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon. Sunshine and mild temperatures gave us a preview of what summer is all about. Even better is the fact we get to enjoy 4 more days of it before some important temperature changes return to the forecast. Take a look at the projected highs the next 4 days in Cedar Rapids. 80, 79, 80, and 82.
You would be excused if you thought we were going into the teeth of summer but it appears that will not be the case. Notice temperatures take a decided downward turn and by next Friday the GFS has highs in the mid 60s...more typical of mid-April.
The dip seems plausible looking at a couple key teleconnections. The first is the PNA (Pacific North America Oscillation). Notice how it's expected to go strongly positive around June 9th.
A positive PNA in June correlates to below normal temperatures for much of the central Midwest.
Additionally, the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) goes the other way into negative territory.
The negative phase of the EPO brings cool weather to the Upper Midwest as well.
The GEFS ensembles are in full support of the change showing a deep trough crossing the Midwest the middle of next week.
It shows the big temperature departures that are leading to its forecast of highs in the 60s.
It also shows the cool lingering for much of the day 5-15 period. Below are the forecast temperature departures June 10-20.
Overall precipitation the next 10 days is down considerably thanks to the decreased amount of moisture in the pattern. Most amounts in my area shown around 1/2 inch. That's below normal by 1/2 to 1 inch.
While I'm not thrilled about the return of below normal temperatures next week, it's better to have them in June than January. On that note, I will leave you with the promise of a beautiful Thursday. Enjoy, this one's on me. Roll weather...TS