THIS ONE'S ON ME...
Finally, some first rate weather showed up around the upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon. Sunshine and mild temperatures gave us a preview of what summer is all about. Even better is the fact we get to enjoy 4 more days of it before some important temperature changes return to the forecast. Take a look at the projected highs the next 4 days in Cedar Rapids. 80, 79, 80, and 82.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_9998c771450f49fca2072029551c440a~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_35,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_9998c771450f49fca2072029551c440a~mv2.png)
You would be excused if you thought we were going into the teeth of summer but it appears that will not be the case. Notice temperatures take a decided downward turn and by next Friday the GFS has highs in the mid 60s...more typical of mid-April.
The dip seems plausible looking at a couple key teleconnections. The first is the PNA (Pacific North America Oscillation). Notice how it's expected to go strongly positive around June 9th.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_1fd9f03912a2457086b2b13ede283318~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_25,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_1fd9f03912a2457086b2b13ede283318~mv2.png)
A positive PNA in June correlates to below normal temperatures for much of the central Midwest.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_e5f50482f32d4d50a1c763504f1ee608~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_94,h_82,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_e5f50482f32d4d50a1c763504f1ee608~mv2.jpg)
Additionally, the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) goes the other way into negative territory.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_066dd3b3626c45579f56e6e40972f24a~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_25,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_066dd3b3626c45579f56e6e40972f24a~mv2.png)
The negative phase of the EPO brings cool weather to the Upper Midwest as well.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_3aac79e0989b4fa2b9bb0d0f7d992cf5~mv2.jpg/v1/fill/w_94,h_87,al_c,q_80,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_3aac79e0989b4fa2b9bb0d0f7d992cf5~mv2.jpg)
The GEFS ensembles are in full support of the change showing a deep trough crossing the Midwest the middle of next week.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_59f92bc94ba04caf9027f01e1b34085c~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_37,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_59f92bc94ba04caf9027f01e1b34085c~mv2.png)
It shows the big temperature departures that are leading to its forecast of highs in the 60s.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_766db9f21f6a4998826ab7d6a74d704d~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_37,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_766db9f21f6a4998826ab7d6a74d704d~mv2.png)
It also shows the cool lingering for much of the day 5-15 period. Below are the forecast temperature departures June 10-20.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_eba161b09df045adb9352fdc5979bc66~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_37,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_eba161b09df045adb9352fdc5979bc66~mv2.png)
Overall precipitation the next 10 days is down considerably thanks to the decreased amount of moisture in the pattern. Most amounts in my area shown around 1/2 inch. That's below normal by 1/2 to 1 inch.
![](https://static.wixstatic.com/media/0d40d5_7e2e6b183a9f462aaf057eb03795eb3a~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_49,h_39,al_c,q_85,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,blur_2,enc_auto/0d40d5_7e2e6b183a9f462aaf057eb03795eb3a~mv2.png)
While I'm not thrilled about the return of below normal temperatures next week, it's better to have them in June than January. On that note, I will leave you with the promise of a beautiful Thursday. Enjoy, this one's on me. Roll weather...TS