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This is the 4th in what will be a series of posts on the potential of hazardous winter weather in the Midwest just before Halloween. This includes 2 threats, cold and snow.

We are still a good 3 to 5 days out before any flakes so there are still issues to iron out. This post is meant to be an early indicator of significant trends with the goal of laying out the early concerns and timing. It is not a forecast. Do not focus on snow amounts even though you will see some, they are going to change and are nothing more than model output at this point, what we call guidance.

I am out of town attending the Galena Halloween parade so this is not going to be fancy, just the latest snowfall forecasts. The big takeaway is the fact the GFS has now entered the camp of the EURO and CANADIAN so at least they are all showing general consistency albeit with differences in placement and amounts. That is to be expected.

As of Saturday afternoon, models show two periods where there could be accumulating snow, or at least a rain snow mix changing to snow. Here's today's snowfall forecasts. What I'm showing are the total amounts from the 2 systems combined. The first roughly Tuesday night, the second later Wednesday night and Thursday.


The GFS, (likely way overdone on amounts).


That's all I have time for. I'll be back to my regular schedule tomorrow. Today, a little family fun is in order. Roll weather...TS

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