COLD START TO NOVEMBER....

Sunday wasn't actually too bad across the Upper Midwest with temperatures well into the 40s and even some 50s. Perhaps it felt nice because we've gotten so used to the cold. In Cedar Rapids the first three days of the month were held below the 50 degree mark. In the Quad Cities the temperatures were all below 55 degrees. That's the coldest start to November since 2006.

November 2006 started off cold but had some warm spells in there and the month as a whole ended up above normal. I think this November is much less likely to have a warm up unfortunately. First... here's a look at the temperature outlook for the entire month from the Climate Prediction Center:

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is also expected go to into phase 7 in the next week or two... a very cold phase for November.

Now there may be some "warmer" days in there. In face, the MJO is expected to pass through phase 6, which is typically warmer than normal in November. But it seems that there's going to be more below normal days than above. Check out the upper level pattern on the GFS through November 14th -

There's definitely more troughiness (blue) than ridging (red) - indicating more cold air than warm air. Here's the results with the numbers from the European ensemble model... The next two weeks in Cedar Rapids:

And the Quad Cities:

Do note these numbers aren't exact and will change here and there, but it is showing a trend of temperatures remaining near and below normal through the first half of the month.

RK