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A week ago I was very excited about trends in the models that indicated a cold and stormy pattern returning to the Midwest in early December. The EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation) on the EURO and GFS were projected to go negative. The JMA and NCEP models had the MJO in cold phases. There was even a strat-warming in progress and indications the A0 (Arctic Oscillation) was trending negative...all cold signals. The only hint at a problem was the EURO MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) which was shown entering the warm phases of 2 and perhaps 3.

At the time, I said the only way we don't turn cold is if the models are wrong. Well, the models have had a change of heart and I was not good enough to see it coming and now it appears as if the first half of December will average above normal. This is a real change in fortunes.

This is what the GFS ensembles show for temperature departures the next 15 days in 5 day increments.

Day 0-5

Days 5-10

Days 10-15

Going a step further, the CFSv2 shows this for temperature departures the 10 days leading up to Christmas, December 15-25th. Ick, 3 straight weeks of above normal temperatures.