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What a day we enjoyed Thursday! Highs in SE Iowa around Ottumwa hit the 60 degree mark. Most every place in the Midwest without snow cover was at least in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Along with the warmth it was dry. The radar at 3 in the afternoon. Very quiet!

An added bonus for my area was abundant sunshine that took the nip out of the air.

The splendid weather lasts through the weekend and then the atmosphere makes a major re-alignment that will also re-align our temperatures in a negative way. This is the 500mb jet stream flow Saturday on the GFS.

By Tuesday look what happens. A totally different trajectory.

That changes the ball game. These are the temperature departures Monday morning.

Compare those to the departures Wednesday morning. We'll be a good 40 degrees colder.

With wind chills that look like this (10-15 below), it will feel more like 50 degrees colder. Yuk!

The GFS shows these odds of temperatures below 10 Wednesday

Here's the odds of a below zero reading. We should avoid that threshold with little to no snow cover here.

Short term snow (or even rain) is not an issue as a relatively dry pattern holds through the 12th. After that with the addition of cold air, snow could work its way back into the Midwest at some point. There is plenty of inconsistency with the track and intensity of any snow producing systems. For that reason I don't see any sense in putting out snow forecasts that are shrouded in doubt. I will give you this. It's the GFS ensemble odds of at least 1" of snow between December 12-20. Pretty decent chances.

Meantime, the weekend starts a bit cooler but overall temperatures will remain above normal through Sunday. Aside from some passing clouds the entire period looks dry. After that the clock is ticking. Roll weather...TS

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