THE STORM TRACK HAS LEFT THE BUILDING...
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HAVE YOU SEEN THE STORM TRACK?
Since early November the storm track has done an exceptional job of avoiding my part of the Midwest. A split in the 500mb flow has kept us between the northern and southern branches of the jet, essentially creating a dry slot through the heart of my area. Check out these 14 and 30 day precipitation departures.
Past 14 days.
Past 30 days.
Even more interesting is the past 6 months. After a very wet start to the first half of the year slowly but surely our weather has trended drier. I was surprised to see 180 day precipitation departures in the range of 3 to 4 inches in parts of EC and SE Iowa.
Despite the deficits, no part of the Midwest is experiencing moisture shortages as you can see in the latest drought monitor.
Going forward the Climate Prediction Center is showing good chances of above normal precipitation in the 8-14 day period through much of the central U.S. and the heart of my area. A 57 percent chance of above normal is indicated here in Cedar Rapids along with a 58 percent chance of above normal temperatures (this is for the period December 24 through the 30th.
CPC might have to back that outlook down as the operational models are showing little if any precipitation through January 2nd. The GFS has none through 16 days in much of my area. Here are the forecast totals and departures.
Very little snow falls anywhere in the Midwest.
The EURO is not much better with this for total precipitation through January 1. The departures follow.