LATE WEEK POWDER FOR MY FRIENDS....
Before we get into the nuts and bolts of the forecast, back in early December the family and I were guests at Chestnut Mountain Ski resort in Galena. We hit the slopes, learned all about the ski industry, and have already run some videos on how snow is made, the lifts, the equipment, restaurants, and more. Very interesting stuff. This year is Chestnuts 60th anniversary and in this interview I talk with GM Mike Murphy about the changes that have taken place and why this is one of the best spots in the Midwest for family entertainment. Thanks to Jeff "Homeboy" Hanson for shooting the video!
Also keep in mind they've been making snow, have had some snow, and have more in the forecast. It's such a great winter destination and as a friend of TSwails.com, I encourage you to support them as they continue to make winter fun. As of today, they have 22 runs open, a base of 25-50 inches along with an inch of fresh powder.
TUESDAY'S FEATURED POST:
The northwest third of my area picked up some light snow Monday night but that disturbance is on the way out. That should give the majority of my area a break from the active weather that's brought a little of everything the past few days.The only issue to keep an eye on is a small threat of some freezing drizzle or spotty snow showers Wednesday, generally near or north of HWY 20. I'm not very excited about that.
I am however, impressed with a late week storm that has the potential to bring a wide swath of snow and ice that could even change to rain for a time in my southern counties. The action gets underway Friday morning and could last into much of Friday night.
As with all systems at this distance, there is plenty of room for changes in track or intensity. Additionally, as it stands now much of the area near and south of HWY 30 could have issues with precipitation types. All models are in agreement that precipitation starts as snow Friday. However, as the day wears on warmer air gets drawn into the system and the freezing line inches north changing the snow to sleet or freezing rain, especially south of I-80 by evening. Then it's possible this area could even go over to rain or drizzle while the mix heads for my central counties. Meanwhile, north of HWY 30 snow continues to fall and should into the night.
This is just one scenario and the one the GFS and EURO are touting at this time. However, if the system ends up further north that is a warmer solution and one that could eat into snow totals across the south with more in the way of rain or a mix. Conversely, a little shift south and we get primarily a snow event and totals would go up. I personally think its unlikely we'll see a shift further south than what's shown now
I know you all like to see the raw model output of snowfall projections so I'll put it out. Just remember this is far from reality yet and could change dramatically. Also, models tend to be pretty zealous and overly high when it comes to totals, especially at this time frame. I can see the potential for a 4-8" band, especially near and north of HWY 30. Nobody count your chickens before they are hatched. Here's what models are showing for now. Very preliminary!
The EURO
The GFS