THANK A TROPICAL STORM...

July 30, 2020

You won't get blasted by the winds and torrential rains but you will feel the impacts of what should at the very least be a tropical storm by the end of the weekend (perhaps a hurricane). Let me show you what's going on and why you should care.

 

The best place to start is on the GOES high resolution satellite imagery. I've highlighted two pieces of energy that eventually will interact with one another. The disturbance dropping into the Midwest Thursday will act like an ice creme scoop as it digs southeast and scoops out a dip in the storm track.  At the same time a wave in the tropical Atlantic is expected to track westward towards Florida where there is a high chance it becomes a hurricane. You can see the two features below.

Eventually, the digging trough will approach the east coast and to varying degrees on models, captures and absorbs the tropical system slinging it northeast along the mid-Atlantic coast. Here's the 500mb pattern today. showing the two entities far far away from a union.

Here we are Monday Morning with the potential hurricane getting drawn into the weakness between the deepening trough over the EC US. and a powerful ridge over the Atlantic. The bundling of the energy is setting up what could be a week of well below normal temperatures across the Midwest.

The GFS has temperature departures that look like this in the 5-10 day period.

The EURO is slightly more tempered but is still quite cool over the same period.

The main thrust of the cool air does not arrive until late in the weekend and holds through most of next week. This meteogram for Cedar Rapids off the EURO shows highs in the 70s for 7 consecutive days...and counting. Only 71 Monday and Tuesday next week at a time of year where norms are around 85. It also has a low August 5th of 54. Natural air conditioning! You can thank the addition of the tropical system as it enhances the push of cool air.

Most of you will welcome the dry air too as dew points Monday morning are shown in the mid to upper 40s in the western half of my area.

This view of water vapor over the eastern half of the nation shows the deep tropical moisture surging northward over the Atlantic coast and the cool dry air diving southward on its backside into the Midwest.

As for rain, there will be some in the southern half to third of my area with the initial energy Thursday. Most of it, at least on the EURO is along and south of I-80. The GFS is further north closing in on HWY 30.

Late in the weekend as the real punch of cool dry air arrives some additional rain is possible Sunday. Still some timing and intensity details to work out but in general, that's what's coming down the pike. Roll weather...TS

 

By the way, Thursday afternoon I will be riding the COG to the top of the Mt. Washington summit observatory. For many years it held the record for the strongest wind gust measured in the US. at 231 mph. It is considered to have the worst weather of any location in the continental United States. That is my kind of place! RK will be filling in as she does weekends with her usual accuracy and comprehensive insights.

 

 

 

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© 2019 Terry Swails