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EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOW UP IN IOWA...

The latest United States drought monitor issued Thursday was a grim one for much of Iowa. 80 percent of the state is now considered to be in abnormally dry conditions. Of that number, 55 percent is thought to be in moderate, severe, to even extreme drought conditions. The worst of it is west of I-35 and centered over the west-central portions of the state. Three months ago none of Iowa had any dryness indicated.

Here are the specific rainfall departures indicated in Iowa since June 1st. Conditions in my area over EC Iowa into Carroll and Whiteside counties of Illinois have deteriorated significantly in recent weeks.

Beyond the Mississippi in most of Wisconsin and Illinois the dryness is less pronounced.

Even though abnormally dry conditions are currently not indicated, northern and central Illinois continue to have deficits of 1-3 inches indicating the need for rains there as well.

On the topic of precipitation, the EURO has been touting rain chances this weekend for several days. However, the latest run is not as aggressive on amounts showing a system dissipating as it arrives Saturday morning and then a another convective system Sunday night with the majority of its rains over the north. Nothing is set in stone and it's only one run but that was not the trend I was hoping to see for my entire area. Whatever happens, temperatures and humidity will be going up over the weekend. Sunday still looks like a steamy day with the EURO indicating heat index values near 100 over the southern half of my region. As for rain this is what the EURO has for precipitation through Monday morning.

Over the next 15 days the Euro ensemble shows it wet over my northern counties with rainfall departures that look like this.

If that doesn't help you, the EURO weeklies which go out to September 21st (the first day of fall), show all of the central Midwest with above normal precipitation over that period. Hopefully we can get some good rains down soon in those areas that need them or that can still use it to enhance crop yields.

I do see the MJO heading towards phase 1 in a week which is a relatively good signal for wet weather over my immediate area and the central Midwest as a whole starting mid-August. Fingers crossed.

With that I bid you adieu and wish you a a fantastic Friday and weekend. Roll weather...TS

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