911, THE WHAT IF GAME...

For those of us old enough to remember, the crumbling towers and smoke filled skies above Manhattan September 11, 2001, is a haunting sight etched in the archives of our minds. Over 3,000 innocent souls were taken in an act of unimaginable terrorism. 23 years later, the magnitude of that event weighs heavily on me, as does the impact of the day's weather.

As you can see in the above picture, skies were blue and crystal clear with a light NW wind that Tuesday morning. Conditions were picture-perfect, from Boston to New York and on to Washington. 500 miles southeast, it was a different story with hurricane Erin churning in the Atlantic.

One can only speculate how history could have been different if the storm had tracked closer to New York. Just a small deviation northwest would have forced the hurricane into the coastal areas of the northeast. Two of the four hijacked planes on Sept. 11, 2001, took off from Boston's Logan Airport, and one each took off from Newark-Liberty and Dulles Airports. It's fair to assume that a significant number of flights to and from the major Northeast hubs would've been canceled if Hurricane Erin had threatened the East Coast that September. Some of those airports may have even been forced to close for a while. Whether the storm would've thwarted, or merely delayed, the hijackers' plans to carry out the worst terrorist attack on U.S. soil will never be known.

TROPICAL INTERFERENCE...

Another dry day is expected across the central Midwest Thursday, with the region still under the dominance of high pressure and its subsidence. Highs in the mid 80s are expected. Looking at the satellite below, It's hard not to see the vast cloud shield across the northern Gulf of Mexico associated with Francine. The category 2 hurricane made landfall early Wednesday evening in Louisiana.

The remnants of the hurricane will play a role in our weekend weather, but as was the case yesterday, impacts are still being handled differently by models. A look at the spaghetti plots (a composite of model tracks) shows what's left of the system lifting northward toward the bootheel of Missouri. From there, it encounters blocking aloft that impedes its northward track and causes the system to stall and eventually get absorbed by a trough approaching from the Plains.

Below you can see the GEFS ensemble members showing a number of potential tracks once the system encounters the block aloft. The lack of strong forcing to guide the weakening energy is causing model discrepancy.

Most guidance (including the GFS) is still coming in light on rain totals, with the primary forcing SE or well west of the region. Here's what the GFS shows for rain through Tuesday.

The Weather Prediction Center is similar.

So is the NBM output (National blend of models)

The EURO has a wetter solution, at least for parts of my area, as it forms an elongated trough with better convergence, especially across the SW half of my area later Saturday and perhaps part of Sunday. It shows this for rainfall through Tuesday.

Basically, the majority of my region ends up between the mass fields necessary to produce significant rains. Thus, some scattered hit-and-miss showers are expected, with generally light rainfall and plenty of dry hours this weekend. Clouds could be a factor though, with residual moisture in place.

The addition of more clouds will likely hold temperatures down a few degrees Friday into the weekend, but readings will remain well above normal. In fact, the EURO meteogram is quite toasty the next 10 days, showing readings like this in the Quad Cities. With normal highs in the mid 70s this is well above average.

We've got a couple more days of dry weather before we add the possibility of a few showers to the weekend forecast. Even so, they look to be scattered, and all things considered there will be plenty of dry hours and mild temperatures. For the most part, the weekend should be a keeper. Roll weather...TS.

PEOPLE LOVE IT. OUR AIRBNB IS A MOST LOVED GUEST FAVORITE!

ANOTHER 5-STAR REVIEW....thanks Myriam

AIRBNB has rated my renovated church in Galena A GUEST FAVORITE, A MOST LOVED home according to visitors. Check out some of our reviews and get in on the flexible deals we have available below.

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