BOMBS AWAY...
- 11 minutes ago
- 5 min read
OPTIMISM FOR THE FUTURE
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HOPE FOR WETTER WEATHER AHEAD...
Despite a strong storm last week that dumped 10-16 inches of snow in NE Iowa and 7 tornadoes in EC Illinois, the majority of my area was dry slotted. Meaning, the center of the system went directly overhead limiting precipitation locally. As a result drought conditions continue to grow and spread. The entire area is now considered abnormally dry with moderate drought in south of I-80 in Iowa and east of the Mississippi in Illinois. Severe drought has crept into parts of WC Illinois with extreme drought conditions noted further southeast in EC Illinois.
The dry condtions can be traced back to mid-August when rain and storms became few and far between. Below you can see the rainfall deficts accumulate around the region August 15th to the present. From EC Iowa and southern Wisconsin south, many spots are 8 to 10 inches below normal during that period. Some spots in Arkansas and west Tennessee are down 12 to 14 inches.
Right here in Dubuque, the period August 15th to the present has produced a grand total of 6.64 inches of precipitation. That's the driest on record for that stretch of time. For perspective, normal is 15.40 inches and the all-time record is nearly 30 inches more at 35.63 inches in 1965-66.
It's more than apparent that much of the Midwest is down and out when it comes to soil moisture with the start of meteorological spring (March through May) just a few days away. A large percentage of the rainfall that goes into the growing season comes in the next 3 months making it imperative that we get the rain machine up and running in short order. To that point, I'm seeing favorable signs of a far more active and potentially wet pattern unfolding over the next 2 weeks.
The first thing that has to happen is for the 500mb jet to align itself in such a way that we are close to the baroclinic boundary, the spot where warm and cold air clash. That's the storm track and the money ball as far as active weather is concerned. To do that a ridge needs to pop over the east, something we've seen little of this entire winter. Today, signs are there that indicate such a development as evidenced by the 500mb jet stream structure March 6th. The ridge is in place and should be much of the next 2 weeks. If you build it, storms will come and synoptically this is what you look for regarding heavier than normal precipitation.
The trick for us locally is to be in that sweet spot where convergence is maximized along the thermal boundary. The animation below shows the ridge in place much of the next 2 weeks. Energy, diving into the west ejects east until it hits the ridge (in red) and is deflected northeast into the storm track over the middle of the nation. That is the recipe for multiple systems with gulf moisture to deposit beneficial rains. That's how you draw it up. For somebody in the Midwest it should be bombs away.
Despite the promise of critical large scale dynamics, the tail of the tape is sure to be measured by the track of individual short waves in the long wave pattern. How energy evolves with each individual system and how it tracks the next 2 weeks will determine who gets the motherload of what precipitation falls. If I had to make a call tonight, I would say my area is on the NW fringe of the maximum rainfall shield. That implies near to above normal amounts with the excessive totals further SE. Here's what the EURO shows for 15 day precipitation totals through March 13th.
These are the associated departures from normal
The GFS is further NW with the rain shield indicating heavier amounts like this for the same period.
The associated departures from norm.
There's a lot of details that need to be refined to complete the puzzle, but the potential is certainly on the table for rains that can make a difference going forward into early March. I say that with a bit of caution reminded by my friend Lynn's reminder that in times of drought, signs of precipitation don't pan out. I sure hope that's not the case.
Short term, before the wetter pattern emerges, we have a big day of warmth Friday with highs of 60 north to 68 south. The GFS shows this. I'm ready for a sniff of that.
After that, things turn significantly colder Saturday, especially in the north with highs relegated to the upper 20s north to the mid 40s south. There is also a low threat that some light snow could graze my far northern counties Saturday afternoon. Nothing more than a dusting is expected around HWY 20 with the main snow thrust further north where 1-3 inches is possible from far NE Iowa into Wisconsin.
Snow is more likely Sunday evening as warm air advection tosses warm moist air into the colder air that resides over my area. The GFS and EURO are at odds as to how far north the snow can reach into my local area. The EURO ensembles have been consitently further north and the mean of its 51 members show this for snow totals Sunday night.
The GFS ensembles are at least 150 miles further south showing this for mean snowfall totals for the same period.
This may sound like a cop out, but I think the GFS is too far south and the EURO a bit too far north. I anticipate something more in the middle centered on my counties from roughly I-80 south. Again, confidence remains low and I sincerly hope better data initialization Friday will tighten up the eventual outcome.
After the cool weekend and start to next week, the building ridge in the east will open a path for warmer weather by next weekend. Here's what the EURO and GFS meteograms indicate for temperatures the next 2 weeks.
The EURO
The GFS
After a 3 month stretch of generally inactivive weather, I'm optimistic action increases along with precipitation potential the next 2 weeks! Roll weather...TS ON A MORE SERIOUS NOTE, IF I CAN'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 94% to my goal.
