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A BIG OLD SOAKER ON THE WAY...

FEELING THE LOVE. Over the past 9 days thanks to your generous donations, we've been raising the funds necessary to cover the cost of this site. We are on our way and with your continued support we're going to make our goal. Still, we are a way off from reaching our goal and I'm asking those of you that enjoy the insights and effort that goes into this site to consider a voluntary subscription. I'm asking $12.00 dollars for a year. That's $1 dollar a month or 3 cents a blog if you consider the fact there were 450 posts issued over the past year. The site requires a significant commitment of time and resources and every donation, whatever the size is deeply appreciated. I just need a little help to cover the expenses. Click on the link below if you can assist or or need additional information. I thank you for your support and consideration.


JUST SAY NO TO DROUGHT

Heading into the month of October the northern 2/3rds of my area were dry as a bone. Moderate to severe drought conditions were common near and north of I-80. However, the last two weeks have brought needed rain and you can see in the comparison below how conditions have improved some since October 3rd. The latest analysis on the left shows a lot less of that severe to moderate stuff.

You can also see improvement in the overall numbers too. The graphic below represents rainfall departures May 1st to October 1st. West of Cedar Rapids towards Marshalltown deficits of a foot or more were noted.

The second graphic going out to October 22nd, shows the deficits have been cut by a couple inches in the past 2-3 weeks. Good news indeed. Of course, those of you in the southern parts of my area are going "what drought" with surpluses of 3 to 9 inches. Down around Bloomington, Illinois rain totals more than 18 inches above normal are depicted. Too much of a good thing.

Depending on where you are, the coming storm could be good or bad news as soaking rains are expected over much of the central Midwest. I'll get more into that in a moment. First, for many the first hard frost or freeze occurred overnight. As I write this some locations are already around freezing and some upper 20s are likely in the colder valley locations especially NW of the Quad Cities into NW Illinois. Yes Virginia, there is frost on the pumpkins.

This is what the 3k NAM is suggesting for lows early Saturday.

With plenty of sunshine to go around, Saturday should end up being another crisp but nice fall day. Highs in the low to mid 50s are below normal but not at all out of line for October 23rd.


THE SOAKER

That brings me to the big rain producer that arrives in the south very late Saturday night and continues through Sunday night. This is the beginning of an active period that could be with us into early November. Look at the energy coming in off the Pacific. The wave train is set up to bring regular bouts of wet unsettled weather the next 10-14 days.

Sunday's system is a classic set-up for heavy rain as an east west boundary and strong thermal gradient aligns itself just to the south in northern Missouri. Ample moisture resides near and north of the nearly stationary front. As a mid-level wave rides east it will provide the forcing necessary for a sustained period of moderate to heavy rain for a solid 12-18 hours. It's been quite some time since we've had a system capable of producing a widespread soaking rain of this magnitude. Unfortunately, the heaviest rains look to occur in the southern half of my area, the region that could live without it. The Weather Prediction Center even has a slight risk of excessive rains (2-4") encompassing my southern counties.

One positive for my area is that the warm sector remains south of my area so this is going to be a cold rain in my area. Further south in Missouri and perhaps parts of central Illinois strong dynamics and shear will combine with enough instability for a late season severe weather outbreak. Already SPC has an enhanced risk outlook in place to our south where if enough heating develops, there could even be a tornado threat. Here's what SPC is currently showing for the greatest severe potential.

In terms of rainfall potential, here's what models are currently suggesting. There is high confidence that much of the central Midwest gets in on a significant rain event.


The EURO

The Weather Prediction Center

The GFS

The 12k NAM

The 3k NAM

With all the rain, clouds, and a stiff east wind Sunday is not going to be pleasant. I doubt if highs even get out of the 40s near and north of I-80, maybe low 50s in the far south. The 3k NAM shows this for highs. Near those 70 degree readings is where severe weather is a concern.

The Sunday storm takes is precipitation out of the area by early Monday but the next system is already set to come rolling in off the Pacific. It should reach us Wednesday or Wednesday night with another round of rain. Temperatures will remain on the cool side well into next week with highs mainly in the 50s.


One last order of business, I wanted to heartily thank local cartoonist Jim Allen for his work on my new fund raising banner. Jim has produced numerous gag cartoons for magazines. His editorial cartoons have been syndicated by the Chicago Sun Times Syndicate. He is the creator of the Beaufort's comic strip on Gocomics. He has also produced several other cartoon books and comics. I included one of his cartoons below. Jim contacted me and asked if I'd like a snazzy banner and he came up with "yours truly" in the uncle Sam outfit. Not a bad look if I say so myself. For more on Jim's work go to http://www.thebeauforts.com

That will do it for this addition. Thanks for your time and if you appreciate the site please consider a donation by clicking the link below. The future of TSwails is in your kind and caring hands. Roll weather....TS


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