A BIT OF A COOLER, REFRESHING STRETCH

The first half of June we were dealing with heat and severe weather, but as we enter the start of the second half of June, the pattern favors below-normal temperatures as northwest flow takes over. By next weekend the chances of below normal temperatures are pushing 70-80% - a rather high confidence forecast. For this time of year the next couple of days will feel quite nice.

Around the Quad Cities area highs are generally forecast to be in the upper 70s/low 80s across the next week. With the aforementioned northwest flow humidity levels will be quite tolerable.

Temperatures just above the surface at 850mb (~5000 feet) are going to be very unusually cool. Based on climatology we're looking at temperatures around 8°C Sunday/Monday which is in the bottom 10% of days. Not record breaking cold, but this shows the potential for some cold air to mix down to the surface.

Sunday will be breezy with northwest winds gusting to near 25-30mph. This will help mix down some of those unusually cold temperatures aloft. A very pleasant couple of days will be in store before we start looking at some more active weather. There are a few storms chances we are watching. Tuesday may have some passing showers, but Wednesday in particular looks like a rather high end severe weather day in the region and we look to dance with the highest severe risk.

A Level 2 of 5 Risk, a Slight Risk, is in place Wednesday for the region and I think there's a high probability this will increase in severe risk as we get closer to the event. The combination of high instability and very robust wind shear are setting the stage for a rare severe weather day. I will go more in detail with that tomorrow evening as we will get some better modeling and confidence in the forecast. However, note Wednesday as a day to watch, especially for those more south in our area.

Upper level winds, notably at 500mb, are forecast to be in the 99.5th percentile - very rare territory for this time of year. This, overhead of modest to high instability will be a significant watch item as the wind shear will be quite high end. I bring up the climatological look at 500mb winds to highlight how rare the pattern is looking for Wednesday.

I am currently out on my annual storm chasing vacation and will fill you in on some of the daily chases in the coming days. Saturday was a fun one in northern Kansas with some stellar storm structure on multiple tornado-warned storms. Have a great rest of the weekend friends, and Wednesday looks like I'll be back in the region for some severe weather in familiar territory.

-Meteorlogist Nick Stewart