A BLAST OF COLD AND BLOWING SNOW

Bitter cold and strong wind gusts are leading to widespread sub-zero wind chills in the region. The coldest air will reside where the highest snow accumulation occurred Sunday and Sunday night to the northwest. The good news is wind gusts will be diminishing through the day today leading to less painful wind chill values Tuesday morning. The bad news is that the powerful winds will lead to blizzard conditions with extremely hazardous if not impossible travel conditions to the northwest of the Quad Cities region. Travel would be highly discouraged.

Through the morning commute gusts will still be near 40mph in the area out of the northwest. Areas that picked up snow accumulation will have blowing and drifting snow leading to very hazardous travel conditions through Monday morning. Blizzard conditions remain possible to likely along/north of I-80.

Blizzard Warnings continue across north-central Iowa and much of Minnesota. The Winter Weather Advisories extended farther south to along the I-80 corridor due to the snow accumulation on Sunday which will be blowing and drifting, especially in rural areas, leading to reduced visibility and near whiteout conditions. Across this warning and advisory area we can expect some potentially significant travel concerns.

By late Monday morning the gusts will be more in the 25-30mph range. Still enough to cause issues with blowing and drifting of the fresh snow, but at least we continue to trend in the right direction. There's a pretty good chance there will be impassable roadways across northern Iowa and much of Minnesota in rural areas from higher-end drifting. Again, travel is extremely discouraged in the Blizzard Warning areas, and even the Winter Weather Advisory area could get hazardous.

Tuesday morning the wind will be calmer but still enough to lead to sub-zero temperature wind chills in the region. Another bitter cold start to the day! Through the week though we will see a moderation in temperatures to more seasonal levels before we are tracking another system midweek.

The GFS

The EURO

There are vast differences between the operational global models. The Euro is much more confident with accumulating snow potential than the GFS - although both are showing something lurking in the form of a clipper. Neither are particularly impactful with snow with the heavier Euro only in the 1" range. So it's not a lot to get excited for as of now.

The snowfall matrix for the Quad Cities shows a mean snowfall of .3" on a 10:1 ratio. Given colder air we might be pushing 15:1 to 20:1 with this, and even then it's barely a half inch of snow. Long-range also notice the lack of really appreciable snow in any of the ensemble members. The pattern looks somewhat drier and warmer in the extended period.

By the weekend the ridge starts building once again in the central CONUS which will favor a warmer trend with time. The storm track is somewhat close, but is likely shifted to the east of the area keeping us on the drier side of things.

The temperature anomalies for early next week show us being right on the line of above to below normal temperatures. It's going to be interesting to see if this evolves eastward given some increasing trends in the ridging.

This is somewhat represented well in the 6-10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center showing the area right on the edge of the above-normal temperature probabilities heading into 2026. So, again seasonal temperatures are looking like the theme into next week.

The model blend shows that cool shot on Thursday with the clipper system, then overall moderating temperatures in the low 30s through the weekend into next week. Not a lot of deviation.

The quieter weather pattern is also reflected well in the MJO as a likely move towards a calmer, milder Phase 7 is in the cards. Now late term there is some potential for a turn into Phase 8/1 which is colder which is something to watch in the longer term, but given how it's not particularly amplified (notice the lines are close to the middle of the chart) the confidence is limited in the signal the MJO is showing.

Stay warm and if you have to hit the roads, please use extreme caution. Roads will be slick following the rapid descent in temperatures late Sunday and conditions can change rapidly due to blowing and drifting snow as the wind gusts pick up. Have a great week and Happy New Year!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart