A CHANGE OF SCENERY
A year ago, at this time, there was much concern about an ongoing drought that had plagued the Midwest all summer. As is usually the case, dry cycles break and often times are replaced with wet ones. Sure enough, precipitation returned with a vengeance as you can see in this graphic showing rainfall since last September 12th. Much of my area during this year-long period was 2–8 inches above normal on amounts. It was especially wet in southern Minnesota and Wisconsin, where a surplus of 10–15 inches is shown.
The results of the rainy stretch was the elimination of moderate, extreme, and even exceptional drought conditions that prevailed over much of Iowa and NW Illinois. You can see a dramatic comparison of then and now in the drought monitor below.
What's a bit concerning is a much drier pattern that's developed since August, and some parts of my area have not had so much as a drop of rain since the start of September. In just the last week, a significant amount of counties in the Midwest have progressed from normal to abnormally dry conditions. Not a trend we want to see going forward.
Since August 17th, if you count today, only 2 of the past 28 days have seen measurable rain measured in Cedar Rapids. Today will make it 14 consecutive days! Fortunately, the 2 days it did rain it poured with most spots in my area seeing a good soaking during the period August 29-30th. Without that, we would be deeply parched.
A CHANGE OF SCENERY...
While the extent of any precipitation remains questionable, there is at least a chance of scattered showers and storms at some point over the weekend. The addition of clouds to our skies will also provide us with a change of scenery. This rain threat is tied to the remains of Francine, which made landfall in Louisiana Wednesday. Already you can see blow off clouds from its remnants lifting northward towards the Midwest.
The challenging aspects regarding rain chances are the fact the system is rapidly weakening and slowing as it encounters an upper level block building over the Great Lakes. The majority of the GEFS ensemble members actually turn the core energy of Francine southeast in coming days. Such a development would often leave us high and dry altogether.
The wild card for us is a deepening SW trough and moisture from it and Francine pooling over the Midwest. An elongated trough, (while weak in strength) sets up shop somewhere in central or eastern Iowa. With that in place and a weak batch of vorticity rotating in from the remnants of Francine, there may be just enough lift and convergence to generate scattered showers and storms. While a stray shower is possible in the south late Friday, the better rain chances are indicated later Saturday night and Sunday morning. Overall, the rains look to be scattered, and I don't see a washout, with plenty of dry hours both Saturday and Sunday. Here's what models are suggesting for rainfall through Tuesday.
The EURO
The GFS
The Weather Prediction Center output.
The National blend of models.
Despite the addition of clouds, both the EURO and GFS do not show much of a cooling effect. I'm a little skeptical that there may be at least some slight cooling. That said, the EURO ensemble meteogram shows no signs of fall, with highs remaining in the mid 80s through September 22nd. The GFS is even a few degrees warmer than the EURO.
I do see at least some tentative signs of more fall-like conditions, but not until later in September. This is the 500mb jet indicated on the EURO weeklies September 27th.
That's a much colder pattern, with below normal temperatures indicated throughout the central Midwest over the period September 27th through October 4th.
In the meantime, it's looking very warm the next 7-10 days. Enjoy it while it lasts, and happy Friday. Roll weather...TS
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