A CHINK IN THE ARMOR...

Take a look at the 7-day temperature departures for the period October 7th through the 13th. That is flat out a blow torch, right on par with the all-time warmest start to October that dates back to 1963.

Here you can see, as of the 14th, Moline with an average temperature of 65 degrees is essentially tied with 1963 for the warmest start to October.

Going into the 15th, not a single reporting station in my area has hit the freezing mark, although a couple spots in NE and NW Iowa have hit 31 degrees. This graphic shows the coldest low since September 1st.

A CHINK IN THE ARMOR

So basically, for the better part of 2 months, the region has been under a persistent ridge tied to upper level blocking. In other words, the pattern has been stagnant and reluctant to change. Here's an example of what the upper level winds at 500mb currently look like. That's left little in the way of moisture for rain, and certainly kept the storm track and any cool air well to the west and north of the Midwest.

Tuesday, the EURO showed a significant change by October 29th, developing a vast trough extended from NW Canada into the SW where it curls northeast into the upper Midwest. That puts the central Midwest in proximity to what's known as the baroclinic boundary, a stationary, front-like zone in the atmosphere that marks a significant temperature or density contrast between two air masses, one warm and the other cold. Unlike a classic front, it does not move much.

The misalignment of pressure and density gradients in this area allows the formation of vorticity, which helps drive strong weather systems. In the graphic above, I've outlined 3 strong short waves within the 500mb jet (also known as the long wave pattern). The short waves are defined by vorticity ejecting out of the mean trough. That may sound complex to some of you, but in reality it's pretty simple. If the EURO is right, we are in the clash zone, where warm and cold air will be struggling for control. That's the spot that energy and lift (vorticity) will be concentrated, meaning we have the potential for several active weather systems. Some would have the potential to produce welcome rains, a very big deal. The ensembles of the EURO show widespread beneficial rains over the next 2 weeks.

The GFS is not as robust, but still delivers some worthy rains.

Not only is rain a byproduct of the changes, one of these systems is likely to eventually push the boundary past the Midwest, opening the door for significantly colder air late month into early November. Below, that's about to happen on the EURO. Look at its temperature depiction the morning of October 29th with a strong cold front along the Mississippi ushering in a chilly change.

So what's the rub? What can go wrong? Straight up, the EURO needs to be correct in its assessment of this atmospheric realignment. Trends going forward could be less aggressive, faster or even slower. Phasing is always a problem for models at this distance, and I am concerned that the EURO is too bullish, and we end up with more of a split flow in actuality That would kill what otherwise was an aggressive run of the EURO to end this long stretch of above normal temperatures. I'll be honest, this is not a sure bet at this distance, but I'm so bored with the same old weather I'm looking for anything. I'm cautiously optimistic and would not put this out there if I did not think there was a reasonable chance of it verifying to some degree. Details are likely to fluctuate some in coming days, but hopefully not the general idea of a pattern change. Fingers crossed.

In the short term, which in theory should be easier to forecast, we do have some rain chances ahead with energy (vorticity) coming out of a trough in the SW. At least through the day Friday, this looks to be very light and confined to the NW half to third of my area. This is being caused by weak warm air advection and minor ripples riding the northern edge of the ridge situated over my northern counties. Showers that formed overnight may linger into Wednesday morning in the north. More are possible Thursday morning in the same general area. Through Thursday, here's what models are suggesting for rain.

The EURO

The GFS

The HRRR

A more significant system is shown later Friday night and Saturday. The EURO even follows that up with another chance of rain late Saturday night and Sunday. Here's what models indicate through Sunday, including what I showed falling the next 2 days.

The EURO ensemble

The EURO ensemble

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FALL NORTH, SUMMER SOUTH TODAY

Temperatures are going to be rather challenging the next few days, with scattered showers and pockets of clouds. Wednesday will be particularly tough in the north, where highs may not get much above 60 in the grunge. A warm front stretched out near I-80 will bring a very toasty day to SE Iowa and WC Illinois. Highs there could reach the upper 70s. In between mid to upper 60s will be found in my central counties. Take a look.

Eventually, the warmer air inches north and highs Thursday are close to 70 north and 80 in the south.

Thursday

Friday the range tightens up but is still quite warm with 76 north to 81 south, way above normal.

Saturday, with some clouds and precipitation possible, readings should cool in all areas with mid 60s north to low 70s south. Finally, we get on the back side of a front Sunday and with some showers still possible in the morning, brisk winds and clouds will drop readings to the upper 50s north and low 60s south, most likely a rare below normal day.

Needless to say, there is a lot going on weatherwise, and it appears I'm in for a busy stretch of weather with systems coming and going on a more regular basis. Hopefully we come out of the next 2 weeks with some soaking rains. That's the plan, Stan! Happy hump day and roll weather...TS