A COOLDOWN AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL

We have some heat and storms to get through in the coming days, but I don't want to bury the lede here - below normal temperatures are looking quite likely as we head into the beginning of August. This will be a welcomed sight for most I would imagine, especially as the electric bill gets a bit of a break. Confidence in below-normal temperatures is greater than 80% for not only the local area, but much of the Great Lakes and Northeast.

The main driving factor with this cooldown is a complete and utter destruction of the heat dome, or a large high pressure over the central and southeast US that has allowed warm temperatures to infiltrate the Midwest. Upper-level winds will switch from southwesterlies to northwesterlies. If you're not new hear, you may also recognize that northwest flow also tends to lead to drier weather, which is also welcomed.

Analogs support the idea of below-normal precipitation as the flow of moisture is cutoff, at least temporarily, into the weekend. We need that after a near-record July in terms of precipitation and flooding for lots of areas.

Model guidance shows highs pushing into the mid-70s late this week into the weekend with overnight lows in the mid 50s! That is open the windows type of weather! You'll notice however, the big-time heat early this week, so let's jump forward to the short-term forecast. The heat remains in full effect Monday and Tuesday before the pattern collapse starts Wednesday.

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

Widespread 90s continues Monday and Tuesday from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. This, in addition to the humidity, will lead to dangerous heat indices in the 105-115 range. However, Wednesday, we start to see the cooldown take over the region and this will also come with some more rainfall.

Starting with Monday/Monday night, a rather high-end severe weather threat is looking more likely from the Dakotas into Minnesota. Some early indications are "the D word" (derecho) is in the realm of possibility. Remember, these happen about one to two times per year and not every derecho is the August 2020 event. I just want to set the record straight on that end, as you might see a lot of hype with this event on social media before it unfolds.

Some remnants of this severe threat could push into northern Iowa during the night and would mainly a gusty wind threat and heavy rain threat. I think the severe weather should remain north of the Minnesota/Iowa border region. Need to be vigilant just in case things shift, however.

The models are in good agreement we will see more storms start as early as Tuesday evening and persist through Wednesday. There's a good chance it will not be raining all day, but there is a pretty good signal for rain on and off much of Wednesday. The combination of high-end supply of moisture and upper level support look to support the rain threat.

Official forecasts from the Weather Prediction Center has some pretty high-end totals from central Minnesota southward into northern Missouri. For the Quad Cities region specifically, Wednesday looks to be the main rain day to watch for potentially heavy rain. Given numerous storm systems traversing the region, confidence is more limited as what happens Monday affects Tuesday which affects Wednesday. We'll keep you updated, friends.

Once again, just to reiterate, riverways across the region including Minnesota, Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois remain much above normal to near record for this time of year. Heavy thunderstorms could prolong high water and elevate any flooding concerns. We are almost done with this active stretch, we just need to get through Wednesday.

That will do it for me from Rocket Ranch. Have a great week everyone!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart