RECORD TEMPERATURES TO KICK OFF ROLLER COASTER WEEK

13 hours ago
3 min read

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Here comes the warmth! A remarkably strong ridge across the central US early this week is pumping in near-record to record temperatures for the next few days from the Canadian Prairie to the Central Plains. This is a significant anomaly for this time of year.

The warmth really kicks in Sunday with the peak showing up Tuesday. In the images below the circles temperatures are forecast highs within a degree of a record high.

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

Sunday temperatures start pushing into the mid/upper 50s with records not quite in the vicinity.

Monday looks like the day records are most likely to fall locally. Latest guidance has high temperatures surging to the mid-60s in the Quad Cities region.

The record for Monday is 60 degrees which should be easily attainable. The normal high is 37 degrees. The forecast should be upwards of 30 degrees above normal.

Interestingly the record high Tuesday is much warmer with a record of 73. That will not be in jeopardy, but we should still see temperatures in the low/mid 60s.

Low/mid 60s will likely persist Wednesday as well before some changes begin to develop later in the week.

By late week, the Thursday to Friday time frame, the upper air pattern begins to break down and support more of a storm track across the central US. This likely will begin a transition to a cooler and more active weather, and that is starting to show up in the models as well.

The EURO

The GFS

There are quite a few differences in the placement of the storm center come late Thursday, but both operational global models show the system in the region with rain on the warm side and even snow on the cold side. The snow accumulation is limited so this does not appear to be a major concern other than a return to normal. We still have half of February to get through after all.

Total moisture is somewhat limited with this system as well. European Ensemble mean precipitation Thursday into Friday is only about 0.10" to 0.20" at best. Really not much to get excited about in terms of precipitation overall with this system.

Behind this system we do see a rather dramatic drop in temperatures with highs struggling to reach 40 come Friday into the weekend. With that said, you can see long term, the highs start to show signals of rising once again on the model blend. This is likely as I wouldn't call this a complete pattern flip, but rather a reorganization phase perhaps.

A quick look at the teleconnections show a rather benign pattern going forward. Some of the bigger drivers for weather patterns in North America - The AO and NAO - remain pretty flat for the next two weeks. Without a big disruption here I don't really see a major change to the status quo for a while now. Above-normal temperatures with bouts of precipitation are likely the main forecast for the foreseeable future.