THE WARMING SIGNAL IS GETTING STRONGER
- 8 hours ago
- 3 min read
While we are talking record-breaking warmth on Monday, longer term trends are getting stronger for continued warmth through the rest of February and into March. Next week you can see the the temperature anomalies on the European Ensemble at 850mb (about a mile above the ground) covering much of the US as southwest flow takes hold pumping in above-normal temperatures. This is a strong signal which may even continue into early March.
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BREAKING RECORDS
Starting with today (Monday) temperatures surge into the mid-60s across the central US which is on track to break records for many locations including the Quad Cities, Dubuque, Des Moines, Waterloo and Chicago. These warm temperatures will persist through Thursday before some changes briefly take over this upcoming weekend.
This is some rather historically-warm air Monday and Tuesday. Mid-level temperatures are projected to be near or above record levels based on climatology Tuesday. In other words this type of warmth in February is quite rare for this time of year. Since 1874 there have only been 37 days in February that have been at or above 65 degrees. Very impressive warmth!
The 10-day temperature outlook on the model blend shows the cool weekend before we once again see the trend upward next week. Overall the trend is warmer through likely through the end of the month and into March. Not a lot of precipitation to discuss during this period other than a few isolated storms late Tuesday.
The latest HRRR shows a few scattered showers late Tuesday through the area. This will not support much in terms of total accumulation but actually may put on a bit of a show at night.
There's not a lot, but just enough, instability for February standards with this shower activity so that we might actually get some thunderstorms in the area. Nothing in terms of severe weather or heavy rain, just an isolated storm.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK
While many teleconnections are flat to neutral, one trend I have been noticing is becoming more amplified is the EPO. The ensemble mean as well as the control runs are in pretty good agreement with a strongly positive standard deviation by late February. This is quite a warm and somewhat active signal for the Midwest region.
Analogs are showing this signal well with increasing probabilities for warmer and more active weather. Perhaps the groundhog was onto something with an earlier spring? Jokes aside we are talking more about the extended period as there's really not much to get excited about in the short term.
Just for fun here is the latest long-range European Ensemble outlook for snow accumulation through early March. Notice the snow potential is primarily to the north with very little locally. If you want snow the extended outlook is rather bleak. Enjoy the warmth, friends! Meteorologist Nick Stewart ON A SERIOUS NOTE, IF TERRY CAN'T MEET HIS FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 82% to my goal.
