A GOOD DRINK FOR SOME WITH MORE TO COME

For a good amount of Eastern Iowa and Northwest Illinois storms brought beneficial rainfall to the area. Estimates indicate areas of 2-3" of rain from northeast Iowa, through the Quad Cities region and into northern Illinois. With the heavy rain, as expected there were plenty of unlucky ones as well given the widesely scattered nature of the rain. The good news? More rain is on the way in the days ahead. The bad news? This comes with a risk of severe weather as well, notably Wednesday and Thursday.

Monday will have a lot of similarities to Sunday with widely scattered storms across eastern Iowa and into northwest Illinois capable of locally heavy rainfall. While not everyone will see the rain, those that do will likely see a good amount of rain in a short period of time given the amount of moisture to work with.

Moisture levels in the atmosphere will be near record territory for this time of year Monday. Precipitable water values will be in excess of 2" which means any thunderstorm will produce intense rainfall rates. Localized flash flooding will be possible, especially in areas that see training thunderstorms over the same areas. Areas that saw heavy rain Sunday will be at an elevated risk of flash flooding if they see heavy rain again Monday.

The rain takes a break Tuesday as temperatures heat up. Highs are forecast to reach near 90 with mainly sunny skies. An isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon cannot be ruled out, but overall most of the area will be dry before our next chance of rain, and severe weather, moves in Wednesday.

TUESDAY

Most model guidance has the cap, a warm layer aloft, winning out and preventing storm potential Tuesday. An isolated storm or two however will be possible given the heating of the day. Any storm that forms likely would have the potential to cause strong wind gusts and large hail, but again it looks quite isolated at this time.

Wednesday will also the the hottest day in the short term, ahead of a cold front, which will be the focus for more storms both Wednesday and Thursday.

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

Modeling continues to indicate the double threat Wednesday/Thursday across the area with damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes all on the table. The severity and hazard will be dependent on multiple factors and cannot really be narrowed down yet.

Wednesday will likely have some rather high-end instability to work with and therefore appears to be the most potent day. Additionally, and severe weather on Wednesday likely has an impact on the placement of severe weather Thursday. Long range, high-resolution modeling shows CAPE in excess 4000j/kg prior to storm initiation across Iowa.

A busy summer-like week ahead with heat, humidity and storms. Certainly feels a lot more like June.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart