A LITTLE UP, A LITTLE DOWN, A BIGGER UP

52 minutes ago

2 min read

We are in the midst of quite a mild period for this time of year with temperature anomalies 5-10 degrees above normal. These mild temperatures will continue through Tuesday before a cold front midweek send temperatures down a little but, back to normal levels. With this drop comes a light chance for rain as well but the overall risk is quite low.

The European Ensemble has about a tenth of an inch late Wednesday into early Thursday, but notice many members have little if any accumulation. Overall this looks to be a pretty slim risk for measurable rain during a pretty quiet weather pattern.

This front will bring some cooler temperatures later this week with highs struggling to leave the upper 40s.

THURSDAY HIGHS

FRIDAY HIGHS

European shows highs Friday with some of the coldest air of the season with highs struggling to leave the mid 40s! This is well backed up by GFS as well.

The colder air does not stick around long, however. All guidance continues to indicate a strong ridge building in again early next week which could help push temperatures well into the 60s, and realistically I don't think areas in the region back near 70 are improbable. It really is an absurd pattern for this time of year and is a classic setup for some big-time warmth.

Ensemble guidance for early next week has highs pushing 10-15 degrees above normal across the Upper Midwest. This pattern likely stick around through mid-November. Later in the month, the pattern may get a little more interesting, but this continues powerful El Nino influence will make it very difficult to really lock into a sustained, colder pattern for now.

Teleconnections like the NAO and AO are trending negative, while the EPO is going positive. This combination historically is a cold signal for the region, but again the strength of the El Nino continues to give me pause early on, especially with limited snowpack across Canada to really modify the air coming from the northwest.

Late-month is a watch item for a pattern flip into a colder air regime, but I have extremely low confidence how things play out for now.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart