A LONG DRY ROAD AHEAD...

I have a few thoughts on the coming winter at the end of this post. Be sure and take a look at some of the early features I've identified hat could make it a tougher winter than recent ones.

Showers and storms Monday night brought some of the most beneficial rains to parts of the area in almost 2 months. The heaviest amounts 1/2 to 2 inches fell in the red and orange areas shown over EC and NE Iowa. East of the Mississippi, amounts tapered off in a hurry, with little to no rain in spots. Center Point (north of Cedar Rapids) picked up 2.2 inches and NW Dubuque saw 2.1. Much of that came in a very short time.

Notice by way of the Doppler rain estimates how the precipitation failed to reach much beyond the Mississippi. It's as if it acted as a wall. Once again, a situation where feast ruled for those to the west while famine ruled to the east.

By Wednesday morning the mechanisms necessary for precipitation have shifted south and that means we will once again enter a prolonged period of dry mild weather that could last up to 10 days, bad news for those of you who missed out on the rain Monday night. There will still be some clouds early Wednesday, mainly in the south. However, as the day unwinds, drier air will gradually erode any clouds from north to south, setting the stage for mostly sunny skies that last into Friday, the weekend, and much of next week.

This animation below shows the trough that's brought the unsettled weather of the past 24 hours opening up and drifting NE, to be followed by a building ridge over the upper Midwest early next week.

The pattern will have minimal moisture or forcing, effectively shutting down precipitation chances. The next 10 days, the Euro indicates this for total rainfall. Bone dry, covers it.

These are the 10-day rainfall departures shown on the EURO for the same period. The dryness extends throughout the Mississippi River Valley and the core of the heartland.

As far out as October 8th (2 weeks from now), precipitable water vapor is shown less than half of normal across Iowa, in the range of 28 to 45 percent.

If you don't mind the lack of rain, this is a set-up that promises some exceptional temperatures. The dry air will ensure plenty of sunshine that's accompanied by warm days and pleasantly cool nights. Today's trends are showing even warmer high temperatures than yesterday, and given the lack of humidity and relatively dry ground, this would not be a surprise. I could see several days in the mid 80s, maybe a couple in the upper 80s south. Here's the meteograms of the EURO and GFS that go out 2 weeks. Pretty impressive for so late in the season. Yet, it's important to note that the longer nights and dry air allow readings to drop at least 25 degrees from the afternoon highs to overnight lows. You can open up the windows at night.

The EURO

The GFS

The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook shows a high chance of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. This looks to be as close to a slam dunk as you can get in the weather business.

Just for grins and giggles (or sheer boredom) I took a look at the EURO weeklies which go out 46 days to November 8th. For what it's worth, the control shows a cold look by then, with a deep trough digging into the central U.S., no doubt triggered by the ridge shown over Alaska.

By then, look at the snow cover shown over Canada, the Rockies, and central Plains. That's a significant build up of snow that would no doubt generate substantial cold air. If this winter is going to have any pop, this is a trend that needs to happen leading into December.

The Euro extended mean, made up of more than 50 members, is more smoothed but comparable in appearance.

Along with the early build up of snow, another feature I'm watching is sea surface temperatures in the NE Pacific. Right now they show a strong similarity to 2014-2015 in both the Pacific and Atlantic. See the comparisons below with sea surface temperatures September 22nd, 2014 VS September 22nd, 2025.

I would consider that a strong analog for what winter could be. For those who don't recall, that was both a cold and average winter for snow locally. There's still other factors to consider, but I am leaning towards this being a colder than average winter, which usually equates to near or above average snowfall. P.S. If you haven't, and you feel it's worthy, please hit the like button for my page.

Until next time, roll weather...TS