A PATTERN IN FLUX...
Last Thursday the GFS version of the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation) was showing a steady tour through phases 4, 5, and 6 between February 24th and March 10th. That implies the warmth we are in (and will stay in through Sunday) followed by a colder period next week. In reality that appears to be the sensible weather we'll experience as the temperature forecast is verifying and right on track. Then around the 10th it shows a push into phase 6 which in March is the holy grail of warmth. Just what you would like to see after a long winter.
However that's where things go off the rails. In just 5 days the GFS has changed roads dramatically and is going in a totally different direction. This is the latest MJO forecast from the GFS and it never gets out of phase 4 and actually takes a hard left completely bypassing the warmth of phase 6. Instead, it now heads towards 3, 2 and 1 which are cold phases in March. You can see the temperatures those phases represent by looking at the temperature anomalies to the right.
Unfortunately, this major change of heart by the GFS puts significant mid-month warmth in doubt. (Apparently new sanctions have been issued against entering phase 6). I'm not sure what has caused the shift but it is likely feedback or poor data initialization. Another consideration is sudden shortening of wave lengths which becomes more common in March. Who's to say, maybe the GFS flips again in coming days? Whatever, the case, this indicates the overall pattern is in a state of flux and models (especially the GFS) are struggling to get a grip on energy and the proper trends. In the end, it's going to lead to active weather and challenging forecasts.
WHAT GOES UP...AND WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE
Tuesday was an absolutely spectacular day. Some would say March came in like a lamb, I would say more like a peach! Highs in most areas were in the range of 55-60 with a couple spots as warm as 63 in the far south. With sunshine and light winds, it was a picture perfect day.
Wednesday will be another mild day with highs again reaching 60 to 65 across the south. The north will hold in the mid 50s with eyes on a cold front that brings a significant change Thursday.
The cold front will blaze a trail through the region Wednesday night and by Thursday a brief but noticeable push of cold air settles over the region. Highs are expected to hold in the low to mid 30s north, low 40s south. As you can see that's a good 30 degrees colder than Wednesday's highs just 24 hours earlier.
With the cold air in place Thursday, a narrow band of forcing sets up ahead of a weak clipper that streaks southeast during the day. There is