A REAL TWO TIMER...
- terryswails1
- 1 hour ago
- 4 min read
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WHAT A TWO TIMER THIS MONTH IS
Yesterday, I brought up the point that January has been a real two timer. After a fast start to winter Thanksgiving weekend, a pattern flip cut off the supply of cold air, putting an end to the frigid snowy weather in mid-December. By Christmas the 18 to 24 inches of snow that had fallen was gone and the first two weeks of January were more typical of late March. Below you can see the spring fling through the 14th in Dubuque. (Similar trends were experienced elsewhere).
After that, the new pattern that emerged brought us full circle back to the world of wintry temperatures. Now in Dubuque (where I reside), we've had 7 consecutive days with below zero temperatures. Since the 19th, 9 of the last 10 days have been sub-zero, with the EURO showing the potential of 3 more Thursday through Saturday morning. If that happens as it appears, that gives us 10 consecutive days below zero and 12 of 13 mornings below the zero threshold. Compare the lows and highs of the first 14 days of the month to the last 14 above. That's a slap in the face, what a change. A two timer if I've ever seen one!
Now, I personally thought it was interesting what this has done to frost levels. January 14th at both the 4 and 12 inch depth and beyond, there was no frost in the ground (none, nada, zip) with the reading at both levels 37 degrees in Cedar Rapids. Then the cold returned and by the 20th the frost had reached a depth of 4 inches and Wednesday was down to 12 inches. The 4-inch soil temperature was measured at 28 degrees, with the 12-inch reading 32. That's what 2 weeks of cold can do in January, especially with little or snow to provide insulation. Now tell me, did you expect a soil temperature analysis today. Neither did I, but with things on the slow side, I had to dig a bit for value.
To the point of things "being a bit slow" to change, it's all due to an atmospheric pattern that is locked up until a major storm departs the east coast of the nation the end of this weekend. If you observe the evolution of the 500mb pattern through Monday you can see energy digging into the middle of the nation, rounding the base of the trough and then exiting the North Atlantic. At that time, the east based trough weakens and lifts far enough north to allow our northwest flow to relax for a few days.
The EURO ensemble shows readings rising above freezing sometime late next week or weekend before heading down again.
What allows the change appears to be the Pacific North America Oscillation flipping from strongly positive to negative. That at least for a period of time will allow the east coast trough to retrograde and reposition itself over the west.
That should take the edge off the cold but also has another implication and that is the likely addition of moisture to the Midwest weather pattern in 7–10 days. Things have the potential to turn stormier. What is even more intriguing to me is that other teleconnections such as the (AO) Arctic Oscillation and the (NAO) North Atlantic Oscillation remain firmly in negative territory.
The AO
THE NAO
In theory, this allows seasonally cold air to reside over the northern half of the nation, thanks to the AO and NAO being negative. Into the mix is the PNA making its own transition to a negative phase. That allows moisture to attack the cold air, and there could be a period around the 2nd week of February when a snow threat exists from the Plains to the East Coast. If nothing else, a precipitation threat, something that's been very hard to come by the last month.
Lo and behold, the GFS does show a wet period with amounts the next 2 weeks that looks like this. Much of this comes in the week 2 period.
These are the actual precipitation departures over that 2 week stretch.
What I'm suggesting is down the pike enough that models are just beginning to pick up on the teleconnections and their analogs. There will be quite a bit of noise in the guidance the next 5–6 days as models start to assimilate the trends, but I did want to get it out there that there are some interesting trends simmering in the pot.
Meantime, there's several more cold, but quiet days ahead that will give me plenty of time to check soil temps (just kidding) and get a better grip on life after January. Roll weather and if possible please consider a donation to the site. Sadly, if I don't meet my goals, this will be the last year of the site...TS DONATE HERE
