A UNANIMOUS DECISION...

A SPECIAL MESSAGE

I would like to thank the 249 people who have stepped up to the plate and made a donation to fund the site through this December. This past year TSwails had over 600,000 sessions, meaning less than 1 donation per session. If you do not find value in the site or don't have the funds, I understand and still welcome you with open arms. For those of you here daily, who gain knowledge, or make financial decisions based on the information, I ask that you make a reasonable contribution. Every little bit helps. After much deliberation, I've decided that due to the daily commitment of time, money, and hard work, this will be the last year for the site if I don't reach my financial goal. I'm only 60 percent there. The future depends on you. Thank you for your consideration and support the past 13 years. T. Swails

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SLUGGING IT OUT

If this were boxing, we would have ourselves a unanimous decision. Instead it's winter, but we still have ourselves a clear victory on the side of warmth. The ongoing pattern change has realigned the steering currents of our air masses, and the countdown to above-normal temperatures is complete. As Nick noted in his earlier post, we are showing at least an 80 percent chance of above-normal temperatures February 12th through the 17th, maybe even a bit beyond that.

Temperatures in SW Iowa have already hit the low to mid 50s this afternoon, and with that warmth expanding eastward overnight, we should reach 44 to 52 as early as Monday. The EURO shows this.

Speaking of that unanimous decision, here are the long-range temperatures shown on the ensembles of the GFS, EURO, and Canadian GDPS. Things are looking rather moderate through at least the 20th. The operational runs are even warmer, with a couple of days near 60. It's on the table if things go well.

The GFS

The EURO

The Canadian

Despite the warmer temperatures we start to see this time of year (thanks to the longer days), things can still flip in a hurry, and we could return to a more wintry pattern later in February into mid-March. The jury is still out on just how significant or prolonged that change could be.

As most of you know, the months of February and March have a long history of producing larger, more moisture-enriched snowstorms.  With the help of AI, I created a Storm Severity Index chart for major Quad Cities winter storms occurring in February and March, ranking events on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the most severe, exhibiting extreme/historic impacts. Such things as snowfall amounts, winds/blizzard conditions, cold, and societal impacts were included in the scale.

Most Severe Quad Cities Snowstorms February & March

Top tier (near-legendary):

1. Feb 2–3, 2011 Groundhog Day Blizzard — 18.4 Blizzard, thundersnow, deep drifts, whiteouts

High-impact giants:

2. Mar 18–20, 1975 — 8.9 (huge wet snow, outages)

3. Feb 24–25, 1965 — 8.7 (massive snowfall totals)

4. Mar 24–25, 1948 — 8.4 (classic Great Plains cyclone)

Major disruptive storms:

5. Feb 10–12, 2007 — 8.0

6. Mar 25–26, 2023 — 7.6

7. Feb 23–24, 1971 — 7.4

8. Mar 5–6, 1960 — 7.2

9. Mar 2–3, 1999 — 6.9

A MISS BY THE AI SEARCH ENGINE

The AI search revealed some great events, but it did not catch all of them, so don't take this to heart since minimal human intervention was involved. In fact, what is likely the snowiest period in modern-day history took place in March of 1951, and the AI search engine missed it altogether. Read this!

March 1951: A major winter storm began on March 10th with freezing rain in southern and western Iowa, then quickly switched over to nearly statewide snow that continued uninterrupted for an incredible 90 hours in some sections and intermittently for more than 100 hours in a few others. Remarkable storm total snowfall accumulations resulted, including 27.2 inches at Iowa City, which is the highest storm total snowfall on record anywhere in the state. Of the Iowa City total, 21.1 inches fell in just two days on the 11th-12th. The storm brought all travel and transportation to a halt across most of Iowa, closed schools and businesses, and took out communications at times. A state of emergency was declared in some cities, including Cedar Rapids, where 19.9 inches of snow fell, with 11.1 inches of that total falling on the 12th. At New Hampton, 18.0 inches of snow was reported on the 12th alone, while Elkader reported 16.0 inches and Osage 13.0 inches. Storm total accumulations included 21.0 inches at Davenport and Marshalltown, 20.0 inches at Oskaloosa, 18.0 inches at Grinnell, 16.5 inches at Fort Dodge, 16.2 inches at Burlington, 16.0 inches at Castana, 15.5 inches at Dubuque, 15.0 inches at Ames, 13.9 inches at Algona, and 13.3 inches at Des Moines. The statewide average snowfall of 14.3 inches from March 10-14 makes this easily the heaviest snowstorm on record in Iowa, nearly 4 inches above the second-heaviest storm, which occurred on January 2-4, 1971.

The point is we can still have some wild storms the next 2 months, but at least for now, snow seems to be a minimal threat until we can get cold air back in the pattern. That could come around the 20th, when ensembles are hinting at a significant storm somewhere in the upper Midwest. It looks like this on the GFS. We would be in the warm sector with very warm temperatures until we get on the backside of the storm. Some 60s are indicated with thunderstorms if this scenario comes together.

Warmer days are here again, and we've got a nice stretch to look forward to in the next 10-14 days. Enjoy and roll weather...TS ON A MORE SERIOUS NOTE, IF I DON'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 65% to my goal.

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