A WEEKEND AT THE SAUNA...
We all need a little bit of pampering, unfortunately going to the spa can be a little pricey (or so I'm told, I've never been to one). In an effort to help the cause, I present the weekend which will give people all over the Midwest a free sauna! What do you have to do? Just walk out the door Saturday, pull up a chair, and start perspiring. Just watch those aches and pains vanish.
That's my take on a Saturday that has the makings of a real burner. Before we get to the serious heat, Friday should bring a nice little "warm-up". Under a sea of blue skies highs will come in around 85 north to 90 south. Dew points around 70 will deliver the moisture to get some decent steam going. No problem getting up a good lather.
Then comes Saturday and that's where things get cooking. If you believe, the GFS with its mixing issues it will be a flat out burn. Look what it shows for highs both days. Rest assured, readings as hot as this are not going to happen. The model remains on self induced steroids. Knock a good 8-10 degrees off what it displays.
GFS highs Saturday
GFS highs Sunday
A more realistic solution and the one I'm on board with is offered up by the EURO. Here's what it depicts and what I think is very close to reality.
EURO highs Saturday
EURO highs Sunday, (cooler north of I-80 where clouds and scattered showers and storms come into play).
So taking what the EURO is giving we get a day (Saturday) where highs of 90-95 look reasonable. Another day Sunday where 87 to 95 is the range from north to south. Of course we need to add moisture into the mix and fortunately Saturday dew points should not get out of the upper 60s to near 70. That keeps the heat index more in the range of 97 to 101. Close to advisories levels, especially in the south. Sunday, ahead of a cold front, dew points pool and increase to the mid 70s. Where highs are near 95 in the south, that could get heat index values close to 105 which certainly draws an advisory and borders warning category in that area. Here's what the EURO suggests for heat index values both days.
Heat index Saturday
Heat index Sunday
As I mentioned above, a cool front descends on the area from the north Sunday. By that time deep tropical moisture covers the region. The EURO indicates water vapor over all of my area of 2.00 to 2.60 inches, in other words the atmosphere is like a sponge...just ready to get squeezed.
The moisture and heat will no doubt lead to instability which lends itself to thunderstorm potential as forcing from the front arrives. With such deep moisture, any decent updraft would have a chance of producing heavy rain in a short period of time. This is not a concern for my area until Sunday morning when storms could go up in the north. If these are part of a an MCS (mesoscale convective system) they may have a strong enough cold pool to propagate into my central counties during the day. Whatever does develop could also leave an outflow boundary for additional storms in the afternoon. These small scale details which are big players in thunderstorm development, can't be seen at this distance so it makes the timing and coverage aspect difficult to pinpoint. The GFS which has been woeful lately keeps the front far enough north that most of the area is capped Sunday thwarting thunderstorm development. I will be surprised if that happens, especially in the northern half of my area.
At any rate, showers and storms at least on a scattered basis will be in the forecast Sunday and Sunday night until the front can clear the south early Monday. Currently guidance shows the heavier rains over the northern half of my area but that is contingent on the speed of the front which could be altered by where storms develop up north Saturday night and how strong they become. Here's what models are currently indicating for rain totals. Don't get caught up in the amounts, it's more the trend of where the heaviest potential exists that's relevant.
The model blend (NBM)
The Weather Prediction Center guidance
After this finally moves out Monday, cooler temperatures and lower humidity returns for much of next week. Temperatures look seasonal but are likely to warm again toward next weekend. As you can see the EURO ensemble keeps readings in check through August 19th.
The GFS ensemble is back on its high horse and once again. I will throw it in the garbage where it deserves to be.
I guess that covers it for this go round. Have an outstanding weekend and remember no speedos in the Sauna. Roll weather...TS