A WET BUT WORTHY PAYOFF

It's been a wet, muggy July and by all indications there's one more big rain to come before a long overdue pattern change. The payoff to cooler, drier conditions comes at the expense of the heat dome that's persisted the majority of the month. As it breaks down, it opens the door to NW flow and a much friendlier brand of weather. In the 500mb jet stream animation below, you can watch the heat ridge collapse and retrograde into Arizona.

One thing is for sure, most areas could use a break from the rain. Through the day Tuesday, Keosauqua in far southeast Iowa had measured 13.06 inches of rain this July, not far from what you would expect the entire summer! Muscatine and Manchester are also in double-digit territory.

For perspective, outside a narrowband just south of HWY 30, the majority of my region is running 4–5 inches above normal with Keosauqua 9 inches above average.

That brings us to the next big system, which has eyes on the area Wednesday and Wednesday evening. The water vapor satellite imagery Tuesday evening reveals deep tropical moisture surging into the Midwest on the west side of the existing heat dome to our SW.

By Wednesday afternoon, water vapor has again climbed to high-end levels, reaching nearly 2.50 inches on the hi-resolution 3k NAM.

With a diffuse boundary in place across my central counties and warm air advection induced by an overnight MCS (one of many lately), showers and thunderstorms will spread into much of the region by daybreak, pushing east as the morning progresses. It also appears on some of the CAMS, that an MCV will likely initiate a circulation that creates a deformation zone enhancing rains in my northern counties. With clouds and rain cooled air, it appears the heating for severe storms will be limited Wednesday and anything that gets close to severe levels would occur in my far southeastern counties. Temperatures from the Quad Cites NW will not get out of the 70s, while some 80s appear likely in the SE third of my area before rain drops readings in the afternoon.

The big issue with this system will be the high levels of available moisture that promise efficient rain producing processes that will generate heavy rain. A band or two may see excessive rains, with models hinting at some 2-4 inch totals. It also appears that with the MCV and its vorticity tracking over my central counties, there may be a bit of a dry slot there where amounts are heavier on either side of it. In other words, the north and SE are favored for the larger rain totals. That trend is somewhat evident in the rain amounts suggested by modeling through Wednesday night. Take a look, there's some pretty impressive rains with every model showing at least one spot with 3 or more inches of rain, some significantly more. The July rain totals are going to go up even further.

The EURO

The GFS

The 12K NAM

THE HRRR

The 3K NAM

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BETTER DAYS ARE ON THE WAY

Thursday morning, any lingering showers in the SE will end early and the evolution of the pattern change is underway with the break-down of the long-established heat dome. Much cooler and drier conditions arrive on Thursday and last into the early portions of next week. Here's the 5-day average temperature departures for July 31st through August 5th. There are a couple of days when highs will be as much as 12 degrees below normal.

The EURO meteogram indicates highs in the mid 70s in the Quad Cities for 5 consecutive days, July 31st-August 4th. That will come with meager amounts of humidity. It looks like a spectacular weekend ahead.

While we will get a nice break, I suspect we are not done with the heat and humidity by a long shot. It would not surprise me to see the heat dome build back into the center of the country based on how prevalent it's been this summer, bringing more storms, warmth, and humidity. Hopefully, if it does, any bursts of heat and wet weather are short in nature.

That's all for now. Have a good day dodging raindrops and roll weather...TS