A WILD HORSE TO RIDE...
For me personally, the next few weeks are the hardest of the year. I'm tired of cold crappy weather and I just want it to be nice. However, as we all know it's a process. You get a couple of good days and then bang, its back to cold. Even worse, when the cold sneaks in (and it will from time to time), it's generally not cold enough for snow (so I have no use for it). It's those raw miserable days with wind and slate grey skies that I despise.
Usually the ups and downs last much of April, and in some years go well into May. All I can do is put the blinders on and fight through it. Such a burden to bare.
The next 10 days are a perfect example of this manic brand of weather. Look at the temperatures which go from a high of 50 Friday, to potentially 70 Monday before plunging to a low of 22 April 1st. Then we turn around and do it all over again going from a high of 42 April 1st to 70 the 4th. That's a wild horse to ride!
You can really see the progressive nature of the alternate air masses on this 500mb animation. They go in and out and in and out. The old squeeze box.
If nothing else, we'll have variety in our temperatures going forward. However, precipitation looks minimal after today. Most of what we see the next 10 days is front loaded and tied to the disturbance crossing the region right now. By the time todays system departs, its expected to generate rain totals that look like this on the EURO.
The GFS is even more generous. Take a look.
After that, the next 10 days are shown dry as wave lengths are short, allowing rapid movement of energy which limits moisture and precipitation. Rainfall deficits from March 28th to April 8th are greater than an inch over a vast section of the Midwest.
The dryness has the potential to extend into much of April as a strong blocking pattern is suggested by long range guidance. What you see here are the 30 day precipitation deficits on the EURO Weeklies ending April 26th.
Below you can see the blocking at 500mb which delivers a general NW flow aloft diverting moisture away from the Midwest.
This also allows some back door cold fronts from time to time to allowing temperature fluctuations like the ones we'll see over the next week. However, the dryness and position of the block should keep readings on average above normal. Below are the 30 day temperature departures for the period ending April 27th.
Getting back to the weekend. After Saturdays showers depart, skies are expected to turn mostly sunny Sunday and Monday. After a cool but pleasant day Sunday, brisk southerly winds return for Monday. Deep mixing and dry air should allow temperatures to soar Monday and most places should end up with highs in the range of 66 to 71 degrees. Hold on to your hat though as gusts of 35-40 are likely. A skirt alert will be in effect.
Tuesday the next cold front arrives dropping temperatures once again. By Wednesday and Thursday highs will be back down in the low to mid 40s. Boo to that! Anyway, that's a wrap for me. Enjoy your weekend and roll weather...TS