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NO TIME LIKE THE PRESENT....
After four days of November chill, it's time to turn the page and flip the script. In other words, warmer days are here again. Over the next 7 days the temperature departures around the Midwest are forecast to look like this on the GFS.
For most of my area, that means temperatures averaging about 7 degrees above normal per day.
That means starting Saturday and continuing into the middle of next week highs should be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A real nice run of November warmth. Here's the 500mb jet stream flow that delivers the pleasant readings.
The GFS meteogram depicts the building warmth reaching its peak Sunday and Monday. Notice though what happens further down the road. Temperatures really tank with the passage of a couple strong cold fronts and we could end up paying dearly for the warm-up, especially towards November 18th-20th.
Here's the change in the 500mb flow that ejects the warmth and replaces it with cold polar air.
November 20th the GFS depicts widespread temperature departures in the Midwest that are 15-25 degrees below normal. This is out a couple weeks so this extreme cool-down is not set in stone. However, chances are good that a big drop in temperatures is coming in roughly a week.
As far as precipitation goes, I don't see anything through Monday. After that models are in disagreement on what happens Tuesday-Wednesday but at least a few scattered showers are possible as two periods of potential forcing pass through the region. Amounts are lighter today than what models were indicating yesterday. That is no surprise and something I was concerned about yesterday as models continue to struggle with phasing issues in the energetic pattern that's emerging.
If there is going to be a period where precipitation becomes a significant factor, it appears that Thursday would be the best candidate for the job. However, only the EURO is showing the threat as it digs a powerful upper air low into the upper Midwest. A surface cyclone rides up over eastern Iowa developing a band of pre-frontal rain that could include a few thunderstorms. For the entire evolution of the storm, Tuesday through Saturday the EURO has this for rain totals.
The GFS is less phased and further north and much lighter on rain during that period.
The EURO also cranks out some snow over parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. While nothing measurable is indicated, if the system comes together as the EURO indicates I could see the first snow flurries or snow showers in my area next Friday. That said, I don't want to get too far ahead of myself and I'm just throwing that out with low confidence at this distance.
Well, that's where things stand early Friday. Thanks for your time and if you appreciate the site please consider a donation by clicking the link below. The future of TSwails is in your kind and caring hands. Roll weather....TS
