ADIOS AMIGO...
We have been on quite a roll the last 12 days with pleasant dry fall weather ruling the roost. Changes are coming and by the time Thursday is over you will notice the difference with breezy and much colder conditions invading for the start the weekend.
First things first, I saw rain Wednesday evening for the first time in 17 days at my place in Dubuque. What a treat! However, the shower was over in minutes and the official total at the airport was a whopping .04".
It barely got the pavement wet and didn't even settle the dust. It was enough though to break the streak of no measurable rain at 16 days. Personally, for that measly amount I would have preferred we stay dry. Amounts around the rest of my area were also minimal and some locations didn't have any at all. The neighborhood scarecrow might have frightened it into submission.
One thing we did get plenty of was warm air. Wednesday was the 6th day in a row with highs in the 70s in the Quad Cities and Tuesday's reading of 76 was the warmest of the bunch. What a start to the month of October.
ADIOS AMIGO
It's time to say goodbye to this round of Indian Summer as a stout cold front is knocking on the door. With it comes a healthy drop in temperatures and some gusty winds. The cold front clears the area by late afternoon but the real chill holds off until Thursday night. That allows us one more day of nice readings with highs in the upper 60s north where the front hits first, to the mid 70s far south where it departs last. I will mention a chance of some isolated light showers, especially south and east but instability is limited and thus coverage should be too.
The first inkling of change will be the winds which veer to the N/NE and increase to gusts of 30 mph in the afternoon. The blustery conditions will quickly draw cold air into the region Thursday night sending lows into the upper 30s north to low 40s south. By daybreak Friday wind chills in the upper 20s and low 30s are expected. The 3k NAM shows this for chills. That will get your attention and require a warm coat.
That sets us up for the coldest day in months with highs Friday remaining in the low to mid 50s. The national model blend indicates this for max temperatures.
Temperatures at noon Friday will be more than 20 degrees colder than noon Thursday.
Friday night the high pressure ridge that is the core of the cold air will be nearly overhead. Winds will go light and with clear skies, dry air, and the longer nights of October, lows should be close to freezing...maybe a couple degrees below it in spots. Frost and even a freeze is on the table, something I'll be monitoring the next 24-36 hours. The national model blend is depicting lows that look like this.
Following a nice but chilly day Saturday, a warming trend follows for Sunday and the first part of next week. Here's the EURO meteogram for the Quad Cities showing 70s into the middle of next week.
Overall, rain prospects remain low for any beneficial rain the next week but around mid-October there are consistent signals of a strong system that could bring welcome precipitation to the Midwest. It also has the potential to bring very chilly air and some part of the Midwest could see snowflakes. Much of this depends on phasing, something models have issues with at this distance. For that reason this is far from a sure thing but you can see the cold air the EURO shows flooding the central Midwest by way of temperature departures October 17th. Readings in Colorado are as much as 42 degrees below normal.
The model even depicts some minor snow accumulations. However, I would not bet on that! Just the same, it was nice to see snow back on the charts.
On that heartening note, I conclude this post. Have a sensational day and roll weather...TS
