ALL FIRED UP...
Well, here we are on the 4th of July weekend. Parades, fireworks, barbecues, you name it...it's happening. Nothing can spoil your plans faster than a bad storm or a gullywasher! The focus of this year's concerns are centered on Monday, the 4th. That's the day showers and thunderstorms are slated to become players in the Midwest's weather pattern for several days to come.
As you can see the Weather Prediction Center has the northern half of my area targeted for a heavy rain threat July 3rd to July 7th. Just to our southwest excessive heat is projected to be a problem. You can't win for losing.
As for the 4th of July itself, a slight risk of excessive rains capable of flash flooding covers all of my area near and north of I-80.
Before that, rain prospects continue to look low both Saturday and Sunday as weak high pressure provides subsidence and a relatively dry air mass. While a stray shower or storm is possible, especially in my SW counties Saturday night, the overall period looks warm and dry with with highs generally in the mid to perhaps upper 80s. Dew points remain low to moderate in the upper 50s to mid 60s. From what I can see, both Saturday and Sunday should be fairly comfortable days days with seasonal levels of heat and humidity
Monday through much of the ensuing weak is likely to be warm and rather humid. In fact my southern counties just south of the warm front could experience searing heat, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. In fact, the EURO has highs reaching 100 or more in my counties in SE Iowa Tuesday , Here's what the EURO shows Tuesday July 5th. 100 to the Quad Cities and 104 near Keokuk!
The heat and humidity results in an extremely sultry day Tuesday with heat index readings of 105 or higher. At a minimum that gets most of us a heat advisory (if not an excessive heat warning).
More important is the fact parts of the area enter into the "Ring of Fire" circulation that exists on the northern fringe of the heat dome situated over the south-central United States. Water vapor much of next week will be in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range. Here's what the EURO depicts the evening of July 4th.
With the air mass "fully juiced", any thunderstorm that can fire in that environment would have the ability to produce excessive rains. Additionally, the westerly flow aloft will keep the air mass nearly stationary allowing for back-building and repeated development of storms, what's known as training. That carries with it the threat of flash flooding with rainfall rates up to 2 inches an hour.