AN ALARMING SMELL...

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AN ALARMING SMELL

There's a smell wafting through the long-range forecast that's strong enough to have gotten my attention. I will address it in detail coming up, but to get out of the gate, I did want to hit the fact that temperatures across the board Thursday were all above freezing. The first time in 20 days here in Dubuque. Not only that, they will get even better with time. First things first, here are today's highs. What really sticks out is the fact it was a really toasty day in the southwest half of Iowa (and points west). The 50-degree line made it past Des Moines, and in Shenandoah, it soared to 61 degrees! In the northeast corner of the state, Lansing got the short end of the stick with only 32.

The reason for the 30-degree spread is the powerful upper-level steering winds that are cutting across Iowa from NW to SE. You can see the cloud fragments aligned with the jet that separates the two distinctly different air masses. Within the flow is an imbedded disturbance that is diving rapidly southeast. When it arrives early Friday, it brings a reinforcing shot of cold air that will do 2 things. One, it blocks the warmth to the west from advancing east another couple of days. Highs on Friday should be down a few degrees, holding in the upper 30s north to the mid-40s south. Secondly, the surge will also ratchet up the winds with gusts up to 35 mph, making it feel substantially colder.

The cold air advection continues into early Saturday, making that an even chillier day. The EURO suggests highs will range from the upper 20s north to the mid-30s south. The very mild air that was seen Thursday in western Iowa will be close by but can't really advance east until the jet advances east of the area later Sunday and especially Monday. This is the meteogram for the Quad Cities showing a 10-degree jump Sunday and a 15-degree surge Monday. The result is a 26-degree jump in highs from Saturday to Monday, when mid-50s are possible.

Despite all the flipping around in temperatures, the forecast remains dry and rather uneventful through next Wednesday. With no additional snow in the forecast for at least a week, we continue to see snowfall (which was well above normal in early December) trending to near or below normal locally. Back on December 13th, Moline had recorded 18.6 inches of snow. Currently the seasonal total stands at 20.5 inches. Meaning, in the past 55 days, only 1.9 inches has fallen, and not a single day has seen as much as an inch! Compare that to 1978-79, when the seasonal total at this point was 55.5 inches. Or, on the flip side, 1943-44, when less than 1/2 inch had fallen. Man, I would be tearing my hair out.

Here's the snowfall departures around the Midwest through February 4th. From the Mississippi River west, most reporting stations are below normal. On the other hand, from central Illinois east, it's been snowier than usual.

Last year was even worse, with significant departures of 10 to 20 inches found over all the central and upper Midwest. I believe the winter turned out to be the second least snowy winter in Dubuque's history. Yup, I was here for it!

Well, let's get back to that scent I mentioned at the beginning. If my buds serve me properly, it smells a bit fishy, and not in a good way. We've been talking a lot lately about how the PNA (Pacific North America Oscillation) was going to revert to a negative phase and remain there into early March. That would place a mean trough over the west, which would have the potential to generate moisture and produce a more active pattern. The trend of the negative PNA remains; what's different in my mind the past 24-48 hours is the split flow that is shown on much of the guidance. The northern branch of the jet is running across the northern tier of the country. The western trough is not phased and is out in the Atlantic on February 20th.

Compare that to what the EURO ensemble showed 24 hours earlier below. The jets are phased, and the trough is much further west and looking quite imposing.

What the new solution implies is that without consolidated energy and more of a westerly flow aloft in the upper Midwest, any energy coming out of the west will be less amplified and further south. That significantly hurts our ability to get into the stormy pattern and get the precipitation we really could use. Since the pattern change is still evolving, it's possible that new runs could back away from the ideas indicated today. I can't say for sure, but I did not like the look or smell of what I came across Thursday. Take a look at the latest precipitation forecasts, which show amounts for the next 2 weeks generally under 0.20 inch.

The GFS

Now look at what was shown 24 hours ago for the same period. Most spots were in the 1.25 to 1.90 inch range.

The GFS

The EURO

This is a really disappointing development after multiple days of potentially higher amounts. Honestly, I can't say that this is a hard reality, but it mirrors what happened with several other opportunities in the past 2 months. Phasing is the key to it all, and that split flow is troubling. It's possible that in time (later in the month) the phasing takes place, but it does not look likely now in the next 10-14 days.

The last thing I will say on the subject is that this winter has been one of the most difficult ones to forecast long-range trends in the 5 decades I've been at it. Teleconnections and analogs just don't seem to have the anticipated results, and models haven't been much better until a few days before an event. I really think the overall warmth of the planet, especially ocean temperatures, is giving them (and forecasters) fits. Forrest Gump said, life is like a box of candy; you never know what you're going to get. That's the way I'm starting to feel about the weather. Fortunately, most candy is good, so I can keep trying, and I will. Roll weather...TS ON A SERIOUS NOTE, IF I DON'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 57% to my goal.

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