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There are good days, bad days, and everything in between. When it comes to weather, Friday will end up near the bottom of the quality spectrum due to a combination of rain, clouds, and chilly temperatures. A bit of an ugly duckling. It's one of those days that happens from time to time and about all you can do is grin and bear it. Ride it out and look for a better horse, as the cowboys say!

Our dismal day is the result of a storm traveling up the Ohio Valley. Its track to the southeast will ensure NE winds that are not conducive to warm temperatures, especially with low clouds and occasional rain or drizzle. Highs are likely to hold in the low to mid 40s, although a few spots in the far south might scare up an upper 40. With winds increasing to 10-20, it will be a raw day. These are 4:00pm temperatures on the HRRR followed by the associated wind chills below.

As far as rain goes, the system has trended less phased, which means a slightly weaker storm that tracks further southeast. The significance of such a development is that precipitation amounts have lowered, some more than 3/4 of an inch in my northern and western counties, (the area that needed the rain most). This is an unwelcome trend there that has shown up less than 12 hours before the rains were set to arrive. To prove my point, here's what the recent EURO shows for rainfall totals. It now has .45 inches in Dubuque and .60 inches in Cedar Rapids.

24 hours earlier it had 1.43 inches in Dubuque (down .98") and 1.08 inches in Cedar Rapids (down .48")

This matters because the latest drought monitor, issued yesterday, shows severe to extreme drought in my far western counties, precisely where amounts have decreased the most.

It's not all doom and gloom, as rain still falls, it's just not as heavy except in the far SE. Sadly, it's not the big soaker it looked to be further NW. That's a real bummer. Here's what models are now suggesting for totals with rain approaching my southern counties.



The 3k NAM

The 12k NAM


Following the storm, high pressure builds in for the weekend, producing a seasonally cool but dry weather. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 40s north to the upper 40s to low 50s south. Sunshine looks to be abundant.


Starting Monday, another warming trend is slated to arrive, with southerly winds returning in earnest. While this climb won't be as steep, it does appear highs in the 60s are back in our future Monday-Wednesday, perhaps Thursday if the EURO is on target. After that a decided cooling trend is noted after March 16th. Here's the meteograms of the EURO and GFS out two weeks.

The EURO meteogram

The GFS Meteogram

I will close with the EURO weeklies, which run out until April 22nd (46 days). What I see after this warm-up next week is a mean 500mb flow that looks like this for the 30-day period March 17-April 16th. That's a strongly positive PNA signature, with stout ridging over the northwestern U.S. and trough over the east. That implies below normal temperatures and potentially a slow start to spring.

To emphasize my point, it shows these temperature departures the week of April 15-22. I don't like the looks of that.

That NW flow is usually sparse on moisture, strongly suggestive of below normal precipitation across the NC part of the nation. That would not be a surprise with the ongoing drought over much of that region (see the drought monitor graphic above). These are the precipitation departures o the EURO Weeklies through April 22nd.

Despite the cool, damp, dreary conditions today, it's still Friday and you can't change the good vibes associated with that. Have a terrific weekend and roll weather...TS

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