ANOTHER WINTER SYSTEM TO WATCH

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Following quite an intense winter storm last week, the hits look to keep coming in the region with multiple systems possible in the midst of a rather active storm track setting up over the Upper Midwest. While overall the pattern looks warmer than normal, the latest snow storm will help modify the air and keep some colder air in place. The American GFS (above) shows the first system Wednesday evening ht into Thursday with our area setting up very close to the rain/snow line.

The European model is rather similar with timing, area and impact, although it is a little farther south than the GFS. Either way both global models are on it and showing the potential for another round of snow as winter tried to cling on. I think the probabilities of of a storm are pretty high at this point, it's just unclear the type of precipitation we will see.

The model blend has northeast Iowa at risk for a somewhat impactful snow of around 3". It's a close call for the Quad Cities at this point in time and needs to be watched closely for potential trends southward. Meanwhile areas like Dubuque, Waterloo and far northeast Iowa are at a greater risk for the snow. There is considerable differences in the snow potential at this point in terms of accumulation.

The 500mb pattern keeps the pattern active through the end of February with the storm track setting up over the Upper Midwest. This overall looks warmer than normal, but at the same time more active. I think there's a good chance this pattern remains somewhat active with periodic episodes of clipper systems into early March.

The American GEFS ensemble has a rather good signal for above-normal precipitation through the first week of March right over the area. The storm track stands out quite a bit. At this point it's difficult to say whether this is more snow than rain, but either way this is at least some good news for the ongoing drought. Some relief in sight as we head closer to the spring plant.

The latest Climate Prediction Center for the start of March looks quite mild across much of the US as overall ridging is favored. Spring is right around the corner! We'll just need to see how much snow will separate us between now and those warm, spring thunderstorms.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart