BIG WARMTH FOR NOW, INTERESTING TRENDS LATE

Really no changes in the short term regarding a rather significant warmup this week with well-above-normal temperatures into Christmas Day. Temperature anomalies could be pushing 20-30+ degrees for a vast stretch of the central US. This comes with quiet weather as well, ideal for any travelers (like myself), so a much easier to deal with weather situation compared to the Thanksgiving holiday.

With that said, locally temperatures have trended downward slightly, but things remain very mild for this time of year.

A look at Christmas night appears to be some of the most significant warmth locally with nighttime temperatures sitting nearly 40 degrees above normal across Missouri and western Illinois. I am running out of adjectives to describe just how absurd this pattern looks.

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A look at forecast highs over the next couple of days shows the unusual warmth. All the circled temperatures in the forecast maps above show the potential for record highs. There will be a four-day stretch of potential records, especially for the southern Mississippi River Valley.

So for the snow and cold lovers, is winter evert going to return? Well we are starting to see the signals we would like to see for a return for a more "winter-like pattern" in early January but there may be a catch.

The East Pacific Oscillation is looking to jump positive with good agreement between the ensemble and control runs. A positive EPO is favorable for more active weather in the Great Lakes and Eastern CONUS.

To also support this the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is trending much more negative with again good agreement to the ensemble and control runs which increases the confidence. The fly in the ointment here is the fact that the snowpack across the US has been obliterated by warming temperatures, so cold air will be lacking before the pattern gets active. To summarize, we might get the active weather pattern, but whether or not this produces snow vs. rain is unknown.

The long-range American GEFS ensemble product is also starting to signal more active weather in this period with above-normal precipitation chances.

The long-range GEFS ensemble shows the ridge breaking down over the central US, however it doesn't quite completely collapse and favor troughing. Instead it's more zonal, or west-to-east wind flow. This would help send maritime air into the area which is more subdued compared to winter temperatures.

So, more active yes, but possible a cool rain instead of snow, is how it looks to me for now. We would really need to see troughing return and a surge of cold air to increase snow chances, which I do not see signals of for now. We'll keep a watchful eye on patterns going forward, but for now enjoy the quiet weather this holiday week.

Happy Holidays, friends!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart