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BRINGING IN THE CHILL...

The emperor of the north is seeking attention once again. That means (not so good things) for our weather, especially if you like things nice and warm. This little stunt, a last gasp power play by the remnants of winter, will lead to a weekend of frost and freezing temperatures. Already, a frost advisory has been posted for the NW early Friday, where temperatures could approach 32 degrees.


This is the first in a string of 3 consecutive nights where frost and freezing temperatures appear likely. The driving force in the late season chill is a large Polar high building south out of Montana. You can see the stout NW flow around its circulation, sending cold air into the heartland.


The air is also very dry, forcing dew points to plunge into the 20s across much of the Midwest. That ensures a dry period of weather through at least the daytime hours of Monday. Even in Alabama, Georgia, and parts of South Carolina, dew points are shown in the 30s. That's bone dry air, indicating our primary moisture source, the Gulf of Mexico, is closed for business the next 4 days.


One good thing about the lack of moisture is that aside from some fair weather cumulus, skies should be mostly sunny Friday with highs in the low to mid 50s. Saturday, brisk winds and some passing clouds will make for very fresh conditions. Highs get even colder, with readings holding in the upper 40s to near 50. A long way from the 80s of the previous Saturday. Sunday, while cool, looks better with lighter winds and full on sunshine. Highs in the mid 50s are expected. As stated, the nights will be very crisp with frost on the flowers. Frost advisories or freeze warnings are likely. Protective action will be necessary for tender vegetation, especially in the north, where some upper 20s are possible. The 3K NAM shows lows as early as Saturday morning that are nipping the upper 20s north.


Over the next 6 days, the EURO shows well below normal temperature departures through the entire Mississippi River Valley. For more on next week, keep reading below.



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BETTER BUT NOT GREAT NEXT WEEK

With the big high pressure passing Sunday night, winds return to the south Monday. That will get us more seasonal readings with highs in the low 60s Monday and perhaps the mid 60s south on Tuesday. The trade-off will be increased moisture, which will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. Models, as expected at this distance, are conflicted on amounts. The EURO is wettest.



The GFS, considerably drier.


Both models are in good agreement that another substantial push of cool air follows for Wednesday and Thursday, with 50s a real possibility once again. Longer range, signs are there for warmer weather next weekend, when on Sunday the 28th, we should give 70 a solid run for its money. Patience, please! Happy Friday and roll weather...TS

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